@Ekolin It is possible that the Michigan cutoff to be lower by a point this year. Note that Michigan’s cutoff was usually around the 35th in the country, while it jumped up by around 10 spots last year. In other words, 216 for class of 2017 was unusually high for Michigan last year. So you still have a good chance. Keep your hope high.
Is the NMSC selection index from the new PSAT comparable to the scores from the old PSAT?
@NYhomeschooler short answer, no.
Just read on another thread that NMSC nailed down the Confirming Index this year: 206.
Sorry - that is for Class of 2017. Posted as an FYI for class of 2018 
Oh crud! Art at compass, just revised his predictions and increased his guess on commended based on looking at new data. He’s not as sure on his TX predicition as he was before either 
@3scoutsmom, do you have a link for that? I would just like to read it over.
I’ll PM you it’s a blog so I can’t post it here.
I just looked at the blog comments. Here is what Art Sawyer said last night:
“I’ve been crunching some numbers and will hope to get a post up (struggling against work and travel deadlines). Because you asked, though, I’ll give you the super short summary. We have known for a month that the mean scores were up by 10 points this year, but it was unclear if that would filter up to the NM levels (it often doesn’t). I’ve recently (today) had the opportunity to see data on a very large segment of high scoring students, and it appears that the increase may be applicable across the scale. What’s also interesting is that much of the increase (I can only speak about the data set that I’ve seen) is on the EBRW side, which would amplify Selection Index changes. I can come up with any number of caveats, but it’s the first time that I have seen something in the results that didn’t make me yawn. A case for a 210 (or even 211) Commended level is much stronger today in my mind than it was yesterday. I’m working with broad score ranges rather than individual student scores, so it’s hard to know whether it extends to the upper reaches of scores (the 220+ SI’s).
Do I know that cutoffs are going up? Absolutely not. Do I have a suspicion that they will? Yes, I now do.”
Edited to move post to a different forum. My bad.
Any word on Commended Cutoff? Last year’s Commended score was leaked in early April.
@ShrimpBurrito I just checked 3 online resources yesterday, and there is no updated word. I am waiting to find out as well!
The earliest confirmed leak of the Commended score in 2016 was the morning of April 5.
“Confirmed leak”? When is official word on commended put out?
@dowzerw it isn’t ever “officially” announced. People find out by contacting their school or NM or reading CC.
The Commended score was released by NMSC directly to a student during a phone call last April. His or her parent “leaked” the score on message boards. The information was confirmed to be true. I remember discussing it in an editorial meeting at our student newspaper.
I think the homeschool parents are contacted by NM?
Any word?
Not sure why so much cloak and dagger but so it is.
Ha @dowzerw you have no idea!
FYI Homeschoolers - NM isn’t going to be contacting you, or any schools for that matter, with the actual commended number. They will just send you a list of your students who made the cutoff and ask you to verify information. To get info. on the commended number, best to contact NM directly or watch the CC threads or that other blogger guy who crowd sourced all the SF cut-scores last year.
Good luck to all!
We’re a small public school that had one Class of 2017 NMSF. Our student paper emailed NMSC last year for help obtaining statistics regarding past CS/SF/F/S at our school. We were polite and made it clear that even general information would be appreciated. Our reporter wanted to include in her story how many past winners we’d had. Our request was flatly denied. Okay, so maybe in theory it’s the sole responsibility of schools to keep those records. But why not be a little helpful? Cloak and dagger is right.