On Mr. Sawyer’s adjusted scale, PA has only reached 219 twice in the last nine years. Because of its large population of juniors (5th most in the US), it has smaller swings than average. The (adjusted) Commended score remained at 218 in that big jump year of 2012, which was the last time the Commended level was 211 (again, that’s adjusted to the new test.) It seems likely from Mr. Sawyer’s historic numbers that his PA prediction might edge up slightly to 218-220, but 220 seems almost as unlikely as 217. In the end, it all depends on how we (I’m in PA) performed.
I have a really dumb question – why can’t we name the blog where people are getting info about the predicted NM cutoffs?
D16 was a NMS, but D18 had a bad math day and hit 211 so she definitely wasn’t going to duplicate that recognition. Based on the clear scoring shift, I told her I was expecting up to a 212 Commended hurdle…so all here are happy to see only 211! The end results (including a nice public recognition by the school today) have been a great blessing for our family so best wishes to all in the running.
@ crazy4info unfortunately that can’t be discussed here either LOL.
@chargerparent Wow - that’s impressive that your high school has already recognized the commended scholars for class of 2018. I don’t think ours does it until well into their senior year.
@LOUKYDAD at #377 - yup. You’d think there wouldn’t be any major or broad-scope movement now. So that new commended score is concerning.
edit/amend: didn’t one state move 7 points last year? And MN moved four so that was significant. Large movements with this new test would now seem to be impossible but I suppose there is a scenario that says cut scores start to converge around a few key values. We’ll have to see what happens over the next few years.
“@ crazy4info unfortunately that can’t be discussed here either LOL.”
Sixth rule: No shirts, no shoes.
Missouri moved from 209 (under the old test in 2013 and 2014) to 216 (under the revised test 2015). So a 7 point swing. I have a D19 and am keeping an eye on the scores to know her “target” for next year. I’m not quite sure what to think with the commended score having risen by 2 points. I’m looking forward to Art’s analysis next week.
@123field, Missouri’s cutoff in 2013 was 210, and in 2014 it was 213. Adjusted to the new scale by Mr. Sawyer, those are scores of 215 and 217.
Adjusted to the new scale by Mr. Sawyer, MO scores have only swung three points (214 to 217) over the last nine years. Unconverted, MO scores have only swung four points during the previous eight years (209-213).
My source is the now defunct College Planning Simplified (I have printouts) and the awesome Mr. Sawyer’s site.
I am curious. We homeschool. My Junior scored high enough to be NMSF. When should we be getting a letter? It seems like some must already have gotten notification/a letter from the National Merit office.
You won’t be notified till Aug. at the earliest. Right now they have just figured out the commended score. Cut scores for NMSF are confirmed by mid-Sept. or so (of senior year).
Thanks! I was under the impression that because we homeschool, we are sent a notification that they send to school principals. Is that not right?
Fellow homeschool mom here. We got our letter than S received commended status today, just fyi.
Sadly, about 99.999999% positive he won’t make NMSF.
All the best to you and your kiddo, though.
Thank you! So, hopefully our mail is just slower to arrive. Sorry to hear about the chances of missing the cut-off, but congratulations on the Commended status. That is an awesome achievement!
@ColoSky - sorry - thought you were referring to SF status only. That’s in August and would definitely name your student as NMSF.
The notice in the spring wouldn’t necessarily say your student has made commended but would say he/she is advancing in the competition and ask to verify contact info. @Belle315 can correct any of this if I’m mistaken (we don’t homeschool so I’m going off prior years’ posts).
Yes, @JBStillFlying, you are exactly right.
From the letter we received today:
“With a Selection Index score of 211 or above, these high performers have shown outstanding academic potential. From approximately 1.5 million program entrants, each of these students is among the 50,000 highest-scoring participants who will be recognized in the fall.”
This is why I said S got commended status. But, yes, the letter was an official statement that S has met the requirements to enter the scholarship competition and a request to review the name for accuracy.
Thanks again! My son was well over the commended level. I guess we’ll have to wait and see if the letter arrives by mail. Otherwise, we’ll give them a call. I appreciate the information!
Schools don’t usually say anything to the juniors about this, do they? I mean, I know that S’s score is accurate in Naviance and his College Board profile confirms his eligibility so it should be fine. Plus the school typically has 15-20 NMSF each year so the staff obviously knows the process. It’s just, you know, as an anxious parent I would like to know for SURE that S is in the NMSC system.
Nope, if your school is anything like ours you will figure out your state cut off from posts on CC well before the school says anything.
@traveler98 most of the feedback from previous years is that schools do NOT say anything to the juniors. For a variety of reasons (the contest isn’t over and/or we don’t care/know what’s going on and/or NMSC didn’t tell us to and/or NMSC told us NOT to (bogus), etc.). Some schools have made a big deal of it at the time. It all depends on the school.
The timing for commended recognition is a bit weird. SF’s are notified by mid Sept (or they may call NMSC by the release date which is in mid Sept. if they haven’t heard anything from their schools and NMSC will confirm whether you are SF). However, Commended’s aren’t notified officially till later in the month, AFTER SF’s have received notification and their materials and are beginning to complete their applications.
Most kids want to know what to put on their college apps. which they typically begin by August, (i.e. well before the release date or Commended nofification date). Obviously if your application is going in after mid-September you can hold off completing your exact accolade till that time. If you need to get your application in early (say, for a state college) and you know for a fact that you are Commended or higher you should disclose that on your application, then update them if you become SF.