I shouldn’t have gone looking! Now some sites are listing big bumps in their estimates of NMSF! I have seen a few with MA, NJ, DC as potential 224s! We are in WA and all sites are estimating a 2-3 point bump for us this year (last year was a 220), so up to either 222 or 223. Anyone else getting nervous all over again?!
Yikes. Dont get us all stirred up here! @RoonilWazlib99
Art at Compass thinks 224 is highly unlikely, near zero chance. He’s left in a few of his predicted ranges only because the data set for making the estimates, namely a single year’s results, lacks a certain robustness.
We may not see a 224 cutoff ever, anywhere, because it’s so far out on the tail of possible scores.
Hopefully, that’s comforting. If not, I’ll be passing out paper bags for all of us to breathe into as results day gets closer.
Here's a quote from Art (I'm not allowed to link). He's posting about CA, but his comments re: 224 are global for all of the states.
We don’t know enough to pin an exact number on things, but let me walk you through how I might think about CA. There is a very small chance that the cutoff will go down. There is essentially 0 chance that it will go to 224. So the primary possibilities boil down to 221, 222, and 223. I think 222 is the most likely, but hardly a given. Let’s assume that 221 and 223 are equally likely. This means that we might guesstimate the probabilities as 30%/40%/30%.
Thanks, DiotimaDM! I’ll have to go take a look at that site. I was looking at a couple different ones.
I think Art’s predictions are the best, where best means mathematically data-driven. Some sites have simply slapped two points on top of last year’s cutoffs.
@DiotimaDM I just took a look. Looks like a 224 is only a tiny possibility in MA, NJ, and DC, so I’m being talked off the ledge that S18’s 223 in WA will be safe! I actually had a mom tell me last year that it was “basically impossible” to get NMSF at our school (which sent up red flags that she didn’t know what she was talking about as it’s not determined on a school-to-school basis) and that she “would NEVER hire someone that had a perfect SAT/ACT score” (my S18 does not have a perfect score, but he has a very good score) and I have to tell you, the Petty Patty part of me wants her to read in the paper that our student qualified. 
DD has a 224 in a NE BS which means MA. Keep me off the ledge.
224 is going to be safe no matter what! You’re good!
Is your D18 at Andover? You don’t have to share if you don’t want to, but I have several friends that went there. My husband graduated from Exeter, so there’s always some good ribbing back and forth.
I agree Art’s predicitons are the best, sites that just slap on two points are wrong, it just doesn’t work like that. They will use what ever cut off number they need to get as close that state’s assigned number as possible (not bellow) and use the other critera to bring it down.
You know, it’s actually kinda comfy up here. As ledges go, I mean. Nice view, bit of a breeze, lots of room for all of us… 
settles comfortably, closes eyes, breathes deeply and slowly, begins to chant
“It will all be fine whether or not S makes NMSF”
“It will all be fine whether or not S makes NMSF”
“It will all be fine whether or not S makes NMSF”
I’m way over the ledge; 226 in WA… don’t fall guys!
@traveler98 I’ve tried that chant but I keep ending with “but it would just be so much easier if he makes it!”
As a student, I have also tried this chant, but I keep ending up with "how the heck am I supposed to pay for college NOW :-S "
A bit less than a month until cutoffs start being released…
@sewin2music start looking into colleges that you have a good possibility of getting good merit without National Merit based on GPA/Rank/Test scores. DS will qualify for UTD’s highest AES award, comes out about $5K less a year and without the study abroad but doable. He’s not interested in TAMU or Trinity but they would likely give similar merit.
Just glad to be in a state were the ledge isn’t as high as your ledge! (219 in KY)
A 5 point increase, is it possible in KY? According to Art"s adjusted data set (2009 -2017) 5 point increases have happened, but it is like a 4 times out of 1000 kind of occurence.
lights a campfire, then pulls out a battered guitar and begins to strum
This ledge is your ledge, this ledge is my ledge
From the California to the New York island
From the Redwood Forest, to the gulf stream waters
This ledge was made for you and me
^^^Wish there was a love button for your melody–@DiotimaDM
@DiotimaDM I’m slightly annoyed because ledge and island don’t rhyme but iledge isn’t a good substitute for island and I can’t think of anything else.