Numerical estimates about cross-applicants to HYP?

Parents Forum
1

<p>I would like to try a probabilistic analysis in order to estimate the odds that a "top" applicant will get into some "top" school.</p>

<p>For this purpose, I need an estimate of the per cent of students admitted to Yale who also applied to Harvard. (And correspondingly for other pairs from the set HYP.)</p>

<p>I realize that HYP does not by any means exhaust the list of "top" schools! I just need to focus on a small set, where there are probably a lot of cross-applicants, for the analysis I would like to run.</p>

<p>The motivation: I hope that the results will be helpful to some students at the end of the month.</p>

<p>If you can provide an estimate, thanks very much.</p>

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<p>xiggi - you got those numbers?</p>

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<p>Thanks, texaspg–I appreciate your noticing the thread, and hope that xiggi or someone may have some numbers. Even a rough estimate would be useful–I am happy to work with ranges of numbers, and see what the range of the final “answers” is.</p>

<p>Also, I would appreciate input from anyone who could estimate separately for SCEA vs. non-SCEA. Thanks again.</p>

<p>This is purely an informal analysis, intended to be pretty quick, and not intended for any publication! I am a scientist, not an educational consultant/analyst!</p>

4

<p>QM,</p>

<p>I know the data is old, but I hope it will help</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.nber.org/papers/w10803.pdf?new_window=1[/url]”>http://www.nber.org/papers/w10803.pdf?new_window=1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>linking one of Xiggi’s threads</p>

<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/1464313-no-they-didnt-one-more-new-ranking.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/1464313-no-they-didnt-one-more-new-ranking.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

5

<p>The most useful information would be the rejection statistics. We know within a certain range the admission statistics of successful candidates but the statistics (SAT, GPA) of the rejected students, I believe is unknown. (If avaialable someone tell me where). I have seen one site but the population of the stats was very small and all dispersed around the 4.0 -2250 statistical range. If that is the true full statistical range of all applicants, then assuming an 8% acceptance range, a 4.0-2250 candidate has a 1/12.5 chance of being accepted. I tend to think that this line of thinking is too simplistic and the full statistical range of all candidates should be lower than 4.0-2250, leading to an improved chance greater than 1/12.5 for the top candidates. But without the exact rejection statistics it’s only a logical assumption.</p>

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<p>Is it possible to extrapolate from Harvard, Yale, and Princeton’s respective yields (all of which are extremely high, but nowhere near 100%)? I know nothing about statistics, but from extremely limited anecdotal evidence, most people I knew that were admitted to 2+ top tier Ivies chose one of the two or more they were admitted to, not an outside school that gives fantastic merit aid like U Alabama or U Oklahoma.</p>

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<p>I already shared that first link with her sybbie, here <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638017-post2210.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638017-post2210.html&lt;/a&gt; and here <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638066-post2212.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638066-post2212.html&lt;/a&gt;. Also this <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638103-post2216.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638103-post2216.html&lt;/a&gt; She said it wasnt was she was looking for. <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638080-post2214.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638080-post2214.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Also this <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638122-post2218.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/15638122-post2218.html&lt;/a&gt; Recommended Hoxby’s publications.</p>

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<p>QM - what difference does it make? Anyone – no matter what their stats – who doesn’t apply to a range of schools or who thinks that he has any more chance than anyone else at these schools – is either uninformed or not thinking clearly. </p>

<p>The HYP admit rates are what, 5% or so? Who seriously applies to these places and considers themselves as having greater than a 5% chance? Delusional.</p>

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<p>Can we do CGM (Carleton-Grinnell-Macalester) instead? It would be more fun, and at least that horse is still respiring.</p>

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<p>Thanks to everyone who has posted.</p>

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<p>SomeOld Guy, that one sounds more fun and interesting.</p>

12

<p>According to the Harvard Crimson,
“On April 1 [2012?], a few hundred high school seniors found themselves in a truly terrible situation: having to choose between Harvard and Yale.”
([The</a> Big Decision: Harvard or Yale? | Flyby](<a href=“http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2010/9/22/harvard-yale-ydn-14/]The”>The Harvard Crimson))</p>

<p>I think it’s safe to assume that a high percentage of Yale admits must also have applied to Harvard in order to generate “a few hundred” dual admits.</p>