Opine on my odds?

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

Hi, I’m a high school junior wishing to attend some highly selective LACs with a few universities sprinkled in there.

White Male
Moderate FA needed

SAT1: 2200

GPA: 3.7 (93.5)

Probably between 10 and 20%, very competitive HS.

All honors courses
APs
Stats (5)
APUSH (?)
Spanish (no test)
English (?)

Senior
AP Physics
AP English
AP Gov
AP BC Calc
AP CS or macro

ECs
Football (possible future leadership) Baseball, Track, all three years.
Debate (captain), several awards
Drama (two productions, lead roles)
Started my own summer business, does pretty well
Sports blogging in freshman and sophomore years
Helped found an organization documenting experiences of immigrants in my city
Student driving learning project involving football analytics
~50 hours of volunteer umpiring little league

Recs should be good

Awards
Perfect score on national Latin exam
Scholastic writing honorable mention

Schools I want to go to, in rough order of priority (I know they’re basically all reaches)

  1. Swarthmore (visited, really liked it)
  2. Carleton
  3. Macalester
  4. Tufts
  5. Northwestern
  6. Vassar
    Thank you guys in advance for any help you can provide!
2

Like you say, they’re all reaches. There’s not much more to say.
I feel like NU stands out from the rest of your list.

3

Your raw numbers are pretty darn good. Your extracurricular are also pretty good, but quite boring. Nothing really stands out and everything is good, but nothing is AMAZING, which is what you need for higher-tier schools. Overall you aren’t a bad applicant, but also not a great one. If I were you I would have a couple of less competitive schools in mind, but being accepted into one the ones you listed isn’t completely impossible. Make sure you talk about some kind of passion in your application. Take whatever interests you and highlight your achievements in that. If you write well in your application and your recommendations are stellar then you might be able to raise your chances at getting in quite a bit.