Class of 2021 parent here. Things were difficult last year but from what I’ve seen this year (on here and where I live) it’s much worse this year. So much so, that I wonder if my daughter would have gotten into the school she’s at now, and several others that she applied to (all large public U’s of varying degrees of selectivity). I’m relieved that she was not in this year’s graduating class. The deferrals and denials of applicants who, maybe 3 years ago, would have been easy admits, is shocking. I’m no expert, but I don’t think it’s going to get any easier in the coming years.
D21 is my youngest but if I had any more coming up, the strategy going forward would be to target smaller, lesser-known privates. The popular publics (some of which were guaranteed safeties in the past, for many applicants) are getting more and more difficult to get admission to, let alone merit and honors college invites. Another strategy that seems to net positive admission results is agreeing to do a global program for freshman year. It’s a big ask though, for some kids, to agree to miss freshman year at the main campus.
It will be more difficult next year, and worse the year after next… There’s nothing on the horizon that will change the trajectory in the near future, unfortunately. This year’s graduating class (and their parents) will also feel relieved when they look back next year.
Some findings:” Through February 15, 2022, 1,161,560 distinct first-year applicants had applied to 853 returning members (an increase of 13.9% from 1,019,363 in 2019–20).
3. Total application volume through February 15 rose 20.8% from 2019–20 (5,379,496) to 2021–22 (6,500,894). Applicants are applying to more members, on average, in 2021– 22 than in 2019–20 (+6.1% from 5.46 to 5.60 applications per applicant).
4. Relatively large increases in underrepresented minority (URM)1 and first-generation (“first-gen”) applicants highlighted in our December report persisted through January: URM applicants increased by 17% over 2019–20, while first-gen applicants increased by 21%. Indeed, first-gen applicants increased at nearly twice the rate of continuing-gen applicants over the same period.
5. About 56% of domestic applicants at this point in the season resided in the most affluent quintile (i.e., top 20%) of ZIP codes nationwide. Applicants from the bottom quintile comprised six percent of the applicant pool. These trends were similar to those observed in prior years.
6. Geographically, growth in applicants was positive across all regions except for New England and the Mid-Atlantic.”
I think that the college landscape constantly changes as schools become more popular. The changes can happen very quickly so families need to be looking at current data and not relying on past experiences.
In our house all the admission and scholarship decisions have now arrived…no more anticipation, no more “what ifs?”. My D22 must now go through her options and decide in what direction her next phase of life will go; and even though she is left was some good choices, it just seems like something is missing to me.
I feel like the kid sitting on the floor on Christmas morning with opened packages and gifts surrounding him on all sides who turns to his parents and says, “Is that all?”.
Maybe I am just suffering from an admissions cycle “hangover” similar to the “post holiday blues” which many people can struggle with. Hopefully, in a week or so the excitement and stress of the last 8 months will subside; and we (as a family) can analyze what we have in front of us and be able to help my D22 with making the right decision for her.
And even though she did not get every gift she asked for, I hope she (mostly me!) will be content with the gifts she DID receive; and we can all look back on this process as a happy and joyous season in our lives.
I think things will continue to be challenging for the most competitive students - kids who are targeting top 50 schools and T25 LACs - but I’m not sure what the impact will be on kids, like my older son, who are mainly targeting schools in the T50-75 range, most of which have acceptance rates between 35-60%. As I said upthread, his results have been more or less what I expected with no huge surprises.
I’m wondering how this era of test optional/ test blind will affect outcomes and graduation rates. When one of the only standardized measures to compare students is removed, what will happen? Will these students thrive (I hope so), or will they find out they aren’t quite prepared for the rigor of the T25 schools they find themselves in?
If the latter, then how will schools respond? They won’t want to let their retention rates drop, or be seen as not supportive of their students. So likely, funds will be spent on support and remediation services. That could increase already crazy tuitions. Or the schools will begin to lower standards.
I just don’t see this experiment ending well. I hope I’m wrong.
There is no way to tell. Also, there is the assumption that those who are admitted TO had terrible SAT scores. The more likely scenario is that these kids scored in the 1300/low 1400 range which are still “good” scores (88 percentile or better) but would not be competitive scores at T20 schools. In any case, any study which compares outcomes between TO and test submitting students has shown negligible differences.
If tests are readily available in the area an applicant resides, the TO college can, and probably will, assume s/he would have scored below its median if s/he chooses not to submit. On the other hand, the college’s test score median is rising (dramatically in some cases) as the result of its TO policy, causing even greater proportion of its applicants not to submit. The cycle feeds on itself, making the TO policy unsustainable. There’s some strong indication that MIT will require tests sooner rather than later (maybe even as early as this fall).
My S22 went through this calculation. He got a 1400, and submitted it to Fordham EA but not to NYU ED. It probably wouldn’t have hurt him at NYU but seemed unlikely to help. Fortunately he got into both.
Seeing the recent comments, I feel even luckier that S22 did only two early applications and was done. I sympathize with those of you whose kids have been disappointed, cheer for those who’ve received good news and wish the best to everyone facing difficult matriculation decisions.
It is hard to hear the struggles that some students are having. My daughter got into all 7 schools where she applied, so she is one of the lucky ones. One of her best friends, applied to few of the same schools and has gotten mixed results back. Another of her friends hasn’t talked about her colleges since applying because she doesn’t want to jinx herself.
What I think really helped my D was that she learned about the process of applying. At the beginning of the process, she was stating she was going to apply to the Ivy league and NYU. When it came time to do the applications, she had no desire to apply. She found the value of the schools that were in her target area and major. Now she just needs to choose one. Unfortunately she wants to wait to 4/30 at 11:50pm to make that decision.
I’m expecting to see the competition for the top schools stay at least the same. But some less-in-demand schools will close. It’s already starting to happen, but many people aren’t yet aware.
Thank you for these words. It has been so frustrating, and I am so tired of hearing people chide “it’s the same as always” on my anonymous local chat board!
Your sympathy is much appreciated! (Not looking forward to this w/ D24, though).
Our D went TO last year and is currently at Colgate where her score would have been on the lower side in the middle 50 percent. She’s rocking it there. Doing just as well as some boarding school kids who we could guess sent high scores. I don’t think lower scores means you’re a remediation candidate. She’s not STEM but the school really isn’t into grade inflation. She knows a good number of kids who got Cs last semester in non-STEM classes so her grades weren’t handed to her. She was prepared and worked hard.
If you read many of the test optional threads on CC, you will find links to studies showing that HS GPA is most tied to college success. Of course rigor and course selection matter. Adding a test score to the mix is not significantly more predictive of college success, nor are tests alone predictive of college success (generally defined as college GPA and/or grad rate).
Bowdoin has been test optional for over 50 years, and there is no remediation happening there. Several schools including Ithaca and DePaul have published data showing no significant difference in college GPA or grad rate among test submitters vs test optional students. I’m sure there will be more data to come now that most schools are TO.
