Yes, in aggregate
Yeah. It’s pretty annoying that they’re releasing aggregate stuff (which means they have the individual results) before they release the individual results. Gotta have something extra that places like CompassPrep will pay them for, so they collect more money.
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What was commended last year? And do you know the low end of the 50,000 last year?
Last year commended cutoff was 207. So I wonder if that means, on average scores were 2 points higher this year?
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thanks. That makes me worry that D25 won’t make the cut off. 
We’ll see if her 220 holds up this year or not.
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I think he is going to set 220 as the likely. IL has gone as low as 118 and as high as 221, but I think its more likely to jump just 1 point. The number of high scores is not really off the norm. If top scorers are at 3.4%, that is average. The average index is 209. The 8 year average for IL is 220.
States with lower cutoffs are more unstable than higher ones. It’s a lot easier to go from 1390 to 1450, than from 1450 to 1500. I things it’s the fisrt group that most likely benefit from the “easier” format.
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His blog is a wealth of information.
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“ The Semifinalist estimates have been updated in the 50-state table. Other parts of the post still reflect the first-half of released scores. The post will be fully updated by the morning of the 16th.”
Has it though? Anyone see changes?
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I think so. Not sure on what it was before, but from last year VA is up 2, MD +1, IL is still at 219… ND, WV, WY all at 209.
Why did TN go DOWN? Looks like the higher scoring states didn’t budge
I think the higher the score the harder it is to get even higher.
I wondered about TN too but I do t think there has been a year where all moved in the same direction. He might have the breakdown by state. If few kids took the test in TN this year it would likely go down.
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Do you “trust” the predicted upper limit is as high as it will go? Any idea how often he’s been surprised in the past with a score outside his range?
I don’t think there has ever been a score outside his range. His data crunching appears pretty reliable and he is pretty transparent. If you ask in the comments he will tell you how confident he is/why.
What’s your state/SI?
Range 219-222. Likely 221.
My kid has a 224
Oh - I don’t think you have to worry about a 225 cutoff. There has never been a 224 (MD ‘22 does not count because it was almost all AE). D also has a 224 but in NJ, so yeah, pretty stressful, but I think it would be REALLY unexpected for it to jump to 225.
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I am worried about AE. Too easy to blame technical difficulties then use a SAT
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TN did go down! The range is 214-219 with cutoff predicted at 216 for the state. Kiddo has 220.
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Maybe… but unlike previous tests there was much more flexibility with make up. Participation is in line with previous years. That year MD had only 17% participation in the NMSQT
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Did the score already come out? I thought it wasn’t until tomorrow.
Compass has it because the College Board sells their aggregated data a little early—gotta make that cheddar, it’s expensive to pretend to be a nonprofit, apparently!
And so in the predictions, commended is higher than last year. Alaska is predicted significantly higher than the past few years—and +3 from last year—but back to the (lower end of) the levels we generally had pre-pandemic, but Alaska has always bounced around pretty intensely, with historical shifts as much as ±5. Highest in the nation is New Jersey’s predicted 223, same as last year.