<p>Here's a summary of my stats:</p>
<p>-Male from Arkansas
Class rank: Top 25% (public high school; 600 kids)
Unweighted GPA: 3.10
Weighted GPA: 3.20
3 AP's taken (scored a 4 on the AP Stat exam); taken honors math courses since the 8th grade
SAT: 2020 (1360/1600)
EC's: I was in a few clubs (held no positions though, lol), played high school baseball, spent a lot of time taking care of my special needs little brother, babysitting, a little volunteer work, no work experience (I couldn't get a job because of my little brother).</p>
<hr>
<p>Their acceptance rate last year was 42% (and since I'm applying early decision, my chances go up a little), so it isn't incredibly selective, but, I hear, that number is decreasing every year. My SAT is right on the median, but my grades are in the bottom 10%.</p>
<p>My EC's definitely don't make me stand out (although taking care of my little brother might be a decent boost)......but I am a male from Arkansas; Grinnell is 54% female (do they care about their male-female balance?), and I'm sure they're looking for more representation from the South (...but just to make sure, lol, are they?). So I think those two facts should significantly increase my chances.</p>
<p>So here is my question. How good of an essay will I have to write in order to have over a 33% chance at getting accepted? The only reason I quantified my question is because when people give answers like, "You have decent chances", or "You have great chances," it is impossible to know precisely what they mean because terms like 'decent' and 'great' are subjective and obviously mean different things to everyone.</p>
<p>...Do I have over a 33% chance with an average essay, will it have to be amazing, or will I not have over a 33% chance even with one of their better essays?</p>
<p>Sorry for the length of this thread, but thanks a lot for the replies.</p>