Predicted Ivy League Acceptance Rates for the Class of 2019

Applying to College
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I’m not sure what compelled me to do this, seeing as the decisions are coming out in like two days, but I guess I want to see how far off I am from the real rates. Predicting stuff is fun. I’m also really nervous for Ivy Day so this is how I cope I guess. Anyways, what I did was take the average of the number of spots accepted for each ivy over the last 12 years (information from theivycoach website; they only go back to 2003, but I think we should be okay) and simply divided this number by the amount of applications received for this year’s cycle (this info may not be disclosed for some schools). Here’s what I came up with, in alphabetical order:

Brown: 8.6%

Columbia: 6.3%

Cornell: N/A

Dartmouth: 10.6%

Harvard: 5.5%

Penn: 10.1%

Princeton: 6.5%

Yale: 6.4%

So, obviously these aren’t 100% accurate. One reason is that some of the schools greatly fluctuate in their accepted spots (Cornell did, and some of the larger schools) whereas others remained fairly constant (Dartmouth, Harvard, generally the smaller schools), so the latter would be more accurate. There’s also of course other, non-statistical factors to take into account. This is just a rough prediction. I’m sure there are better ways to do this, and I’d try them all out if I had time. For example, I was thinking about plotting the spots accepted, using a regression equation to model the data, and using the next x value from this equation to use instead of the average. If anyone else has a different method, feel free to share.

Also, I suppose this doesn’t necessarily have to be ivy-inclusive. Use this thread for any acceptance rate predictions.

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I like your regression equation idea, but I think my method is even better. I’ve used it for other schools and have predicted the acceptance rates pretty spot on (often exact!)

It’ll take me a little while to run, but I’ll post my predictions - say - Wednesday. You can check them then :smiley:

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Erm there does not seem a huge point in running your predictions after decisions have passed… often times schools will post these things immediately.

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@slights32‌ that was sarcasm.

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@slights32 Well I just thought it might be fun to see how far off I am, that’s all.

@jamesjunkers‌ Post it here when you can!

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@slights32 @wilguen -
Yes, as @ormdad stated, I was being sarcastic; I was trying to write that you’ll know the stats in a couple days and the best thing to do would be to wait, but I guess people didn’t understand that :smiley:

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@jamesjunkers I feel dumb hahahaha

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I hope you are not using a linear regression model, otherwise, it will hit 0% admission sooner or later. :wink:

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Ha Ha. At 0% some of them will finally achieve their reputation - unattainable.

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@billcsho haha no, I used a quartic regression model for the couple I did