<p>^Make that 75 W</p>
<p>Yes, steelergolf11, being “on” the number makes you NMSF - so if it’s 216 you’re good! I’ve heard most states went up a few points last year and most cutoffs are predicted to stay the same or maybe even drop a few points. Don’t know much about PA specifically, but you should be close! Good luck!</p>
<p>Yes, steelergolf11, “being on the actual cutoff number” works! If the cutoff goes up to 216 this year, your score of 216 will qualify you for NMSF.</p>
<p>^Yep the cut off number and all scores above it are good for National Semifinalist. Also, yes, 216 should be good for NMSF in PA. The cut offs are generally expected to go down two or three points this year, since the curve is harsher, unless your state experienced an unexpectedly high increase in the number of test takers this year or some other anamolous factors.</p>
<p>Perazzi…it will be interesting to see if the numbers drop in various states…especially those ones that had big jumps this last year. Of course, a drop in cut-off scores this next fall will surely annoy a good number of people whose scores didn’t make it last year, but would have made it this year.</p>
<p>steelergolf11: I have good news and bad news for you. The good news is that, for some reason, the number of testtakers in PA dropped 5% for the 2011 test. (That’s odd as most states are consistently going up.) </p>
<p>The bad news is that the state-level data shows that, compared to 2010, a slightly larger percentage of 2011 testakers in PA scored in the upper ranges. It appears the top PA students are still taking the PSAT in droves.</p>
<p>My guess, and it’s only a guess, is that the good news and bad news may cancel each other out. While PA may not drop 2 points along with the Natl trend, I don’t see it jumping 2 points either. So I agree with perazziman that you are in pretty good shape with a 216.</p>
<p>Clapuma Any chance you can shed some light on how the NJ number might turn out. Son had 221…and NJ for the 2012 class was cut off at 223.</p>
<p>^@vryproudmom: I will stick my neck out, and say, I think, NJ will probably experience a three point drop compared to last year… same number of students taking the test as last year … but I believe the number of top scoring students is down significantly this year.</p>
<p>Thanks for the reply…I thought the number of top scoring students was down this year but wanted to check if I was interpreting the charts correctly.</p>
<p>clapuma, Looks like the smart people from jersey are moving across the border to PA ;)</p>
<p>^@vryproudmom: You and perazziman are correct. The number of NJ students scoring in the 75-80 range in each section dropped quite a bit this year. However, if you add the 70-74 range (or the 65-74 range) the numbers are pretty close to last year, meaning the scores didn’t drop far. </p>
<p>For high performing states like NJ, the top range is the most important, so I think there is a reasonable chance that NJ will follow the Natl downward trend and go down at least 2 points. However, the NJ data doesn’t show quite as much overall downward pressure as I’m seeing in some other states this year. So it could be close. </p>
<p>Good luck to your son. Whether he makes the NJ cutoff or not you are right to be very proud of him.</p>
<p>In all the research folks are doing, anyone want to take a shot at VA cut-off for 2013 graduates? Unlike my son, I am not smart enough to take on this task. FYI–Just had two good visits to UT Austin and TAMU. TAMU very focused on NMF students.</p>
<p>@ Aggie84, My guess is that unless there is a significant drop in the total number of high school seniors in Va next year, the cut off drops a couple of points to 218 or below.</p>
<p>I’m with perazziman. VA had a drop both in the number of testakers and in the percentage of students scoring in the highest range. That portends a drop.</p>
<p>Can the statisticians weigh in on where you think FL’s scores will go? We had a score spike last year. D got a 212 this year and am hoping we can have a downward trend for NM!</p>
<p>Has anyone attempted to forecast the Georgia cut off. I believe 2010 was 214 and 2011 was 2018. DS scored 214 - Curious about the possibility that it goes down that much.</p>
<p>There was a huge drop in test takers this past year and it looks to me that the averages at the top 2 levels of each category are right about the levels of the 214 year. I know nothing about the graduation rates for GA. You can call the NM office and they can give you the number of NMSF for each year. I would ask for the last 4-5 years and see if the number stays relatively constant. If they have, I can definately see the number dropping to at least 215. It will be a nail-biter.</p>
<p>Lisam128, my guess is, Florida cut off drops to 212, perhaps 210, unless there was a huge drop in the total numbers of high school students graduating from Florida next year.</p>
<p>Perazziman, thanks. I hope your right! It would make the application process much easier! I’m curious, did you look at the FL numbers? The highest percentages 700-800 did seem to go down from last year to this. In comparison to 2009, the writing is definitely stronger this year. I assume they take all three subtexts into the calculation.</p>
<p>Thought i should add…Total test takers in fl 2009-65776, 2010-66939, 2011-66958.</p>