<p>Anyone have a guess on Texas cutoff this year? Went from 215 to 219 and we are hoping for a return to 215 this year</p>
<p>It looks as though the TX scores have gone down to the levels of when the cutoff was 215, even though more students took the test. Of course it depends on how many graduating seniors there are relative to a couple of years ago. Do you know how many NMSF there were in TX for the last 2-3 years? Everything remaining constant, I think it will go down 2-3 points at least.</p>
<p>A lot of really impressive scores! I got a 221 in MA which is apparently equivalent to a 223 nationally last year? That happened to be the MA cutoff last year… any guesses on the MA semifinalist cutoff this year?</p>
<p>Yeah I am from Florida, and I got a 216, which, historically, would be pretty safe from the cut off. Hopefully, since I am the 99% at my school (only one friend got a higher score than me)… I do make the cut. But Florida just had a small spike to 214. Under my knowledge. it has never been that high (big bro got it with a 213). Should I worry?</p>
<p>I do not think that the cut off will drop much, perhaps a point or two in MA.</p>
<p>A few thoughts:</p>
<p>TX – I’ve studied TX closely. The 4 point jump in 2010 is mostly explained by the fact that the # of TX test takers jumped by 20K (more than 10%). As with many states this year, I see downward pressure on the TX scores. But, as wemel mentioned, the # of TX test takers went up again (though only by 1500 or so). I think a drop of 2-3 points for TX is most likely (though 4 is not out of the question).</p>
<p>MA – I’m with perazziman. The state-level numbers suggest MA will go down. The question is by how much. 1 or 2 is most likely. For justlovelife’s sake, I hope it’s 2. I’d put the odds at 60%.</p>
<p>FL – 216 is pretty much a lock for FL in my view. There is some downward pressure, not enough for me to think it will go back to the 2009 level. Down 2 seems reasonable.</p>
<p>GA – the drop in # of GA test takers is a good sign. Otherwise I wouldn’t expect a 4 point drop. 3 seems more reasonable.</p>
<p>If I have time, I can post the #s that support the above analysis.</p>
<p>How about Wisconsin?</p>
<p>WI - If everything else remains constant, my guess is that WI may go down 1 point. Fewer test takers and much lower scores in the top 2 ranges.</p>
<p>Aggie 84: don’t want to hijack thread, but can you elaborate on TAMU comments. Although the NMF package on their website is good, by my calculations it would still leave about $12K/year unfunded for an out of state student – so its not a full-ride like other schools. You can PM me if you’d like. Thx.</p>
<p>Others might want to correct me, but this was mainly in the context of comparison to UT, which doesn’t appear to do much of anything for NMF. Your are correct that on paper it doesn’t amount to a full ride. However, we met with admissions counselor that advised son to complete all three essays and indicate that he was interested in applying for scholarships. This opens the door to additional scholarships from the university and at departmental level. Also encouraged to apply as early as possible (admissions open in August) since there is a rolling admissions calendar. He keeps in touch with NMF students on a regular basis and indicated that most ended up being almost fully paid for and in some cases getting refunds. I encourage you to call admissions folks, indicate your child is potential NMF and to speak to the counselor that handles this program. Of course, this could all change at a moments notice and probably depends on individual cases. They were very accomodating about setting up a personal visit as well. Good lucK! </p>
<p>On a housing note–no preference provided to freshman at either UT or A&M. Apply early and put in the housing deposit if this is an issue, or want a specific style of dorm.</p>
<p>Thanks! Great advice…</p>
<p>@clapuma- thank you so much for the analysis, I guess there’s hope until August 
good luck to everyone!</p>
<p>First timer…I’m really impressed with how nice people are about gathering/sharing data here. My questions are about Ohio. Was there much of a change in # taking the test there in Oct '11 and what likely impact would it have compared to the last cut - 214? D scored 218 so we’re cautiously optimistic.</p>
<p>biglefty: It would be totally irresponsible of me to try to predict any given outcome…but let me be the first to congratulate your D on achieving NMSF status! :)</p>
<p>Ohio’s facts are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>the # of OH PSAT testtakers dropped 4% in 2011 vs. 2010 (from 51275 to 49231)</li>
<li>the # of OH students scoring in the top ranges in 2011 was the lowest going back at least to 2008 (when the OH cutoff was 211)</li>
</ul>
<p>NMSF slots are allocated among the states based on # of HS graduates. So unless OH is expected to have an historic drop in HS graduates this year, you have good reason to be optimistic (cautiously or otherwise).</p>
<p>big lefty…Ohio would have to go up 5 points (from 214 - 219) for your D not to make it. That’s not likely. While there’s no assurance, you can be reasonable optimistic.</p>
<p>Here’s an early congrats!</p>
<p>:)</p>
<p>Thanks for the quick responses! And the endorsements of our cautious optimism :)</p>
<p>Hey guys, I scored a 203 in Oct. 2011, do you think I have a good chance of NM Commended?</p>
<p>All states have the same Commended. NM doesn’t have its own score.</p>
<p>It’s usually around 201 or 202. I don’t think it’s ever been 204, which means you’ll likely make commended.</p>
<p>Congrats.</p>
<p>latitude123, I think you have an excellent chance of making commended with a 203. My prediction is that commended scholar cutoff for the 2011 test will be 200. Typically the commended cutoff is the highest selection index number for the 96th percentile range. For example, with the 2008 test (2010 graduates), scores between 198 and 201 fell within the 96th percentile nationally and the commended cutoff was 201. </p>
<p>Here is the history. Assuming I have the commended cutoffs right, the only exception going back to 2004 was the cutoff for 2009, which was the bottom of the 97% range rather than the top of the 96% range.</p>
<p>Year…Commended cutoff…96% range
2004/2006…202…199-202
2005/2007…203…201-203
2006/2008…200…198-200
2007/2009…200…198-200
2008/2010…201…198-201
2009/2011…201…197-200
2010/2012…202…199-202
2011/2013…??..197-200</p>
<p>@clapuma
Earlier in the thread you predicted the cut-off for GA. With a score of 216 in GA, do I have reason to be cautiously optimistic about getting NMSF? Also, I have a friend with a 215; do you think she has a chance too? I need some reassurance! Thanks!</p>