Reach vs Match vs Safety

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

For those of you who don’t know…

Safety- You should be able to get into this school with no problem and is often a backup plan to your first choice colleges (90%+ chance at admission)

Matches- Ideal fit for someone of your academic level (sometimes including ECs and all)
Low Match- 80-90% chance at admission
Match- 65-80% chance at admission
High match- 50-65% chance of admission

Reaches- Not necessarily a very good chance of getting in, but possibly worth a shot anyway
Low reach- 40-50% chance of admission
Reach- 20-40% chance at admission
High reach- 5-20% chance at admission
Out of reach- 0-5% chance at admission (not worth the application)

This is (about) what I believe the terms to mean. If you disagree, feel free to give your own definitions. I just think it would be good if everyone could have a general idea of what people mean by safety, match, and reach so that people can know exactly what their chances are when someone tells them that a school is one of these terms.

2

I agree with you for the safeties and the matches, but I think that chances for reaches are a little bit lower, for example:

  • Low Reach : 30-40 %
  • Reach : 20-30 %
  • High reach : 5-20 %
  • Out of Reach : 0-5 %

Interesting post, though :slight_smile:

3

I pretty much agree with the OP’s breakdown of the categories. I could quibble a little bit with the boundaries, but really only +/- 5% at most, so I think it is overall it’s a decent breakdown.

The probable error for even pretty solid estimates of admission chances is mostly likely at least +/-10, so one shouldn’t read too much into the specific categories when being this granular. Your “High match” maybe very well be a “Low Reach” in reality.

4

How would a potential applicant, or anyone for that matter, know their percentile chance of admission within such a tight range in order to make such a distinction?

5

you don’t, but you can make a decent estimate