Hi
Naviance is showing some colleges as match for my D22 , but looking at the scattergram they look more like reach colleges than matches. Question. Is there a way to confirm something is a safety college? Is that by looking at common data set and making sure stats are above 75%?
Thanks
I wouldn’t use the Naviance college search function to delineate between matches and reaches…it is overly optimistic.
A true safety is auto-admit based on stats AND is affordable. (it’s not a safety if one can’t attend because they can’t afford it)
People may have different admission rate cutoffs…but here is one possible way to categorize schools:
A highly likely school is where one is above the 75% mark in stats AND has a high acceptance rate, say 60%-70%+. On a Naviance scattergram, the applicant’s stat level would show all admits.
Consider any school with an admit rate below 20% (some will say up to 25%) as a reach for all, no matter their stats.
Targets would be schools somewhere in between reaches and highly likelies/safeties, with stats at a minimum in the mid 50% range.
Thank you so very much. Stats means - unweighted GPA and standardized test score (e.g.SAT) . correct? will refer to common data sets for the 50%, 75% numbers. thanks again. this is super helpful.
Yes on stats…unweighted GPA in core courses only and test scores, but rigor should be understood as well. A 4.0 in non-honors/non AP classes is not as strong as a 4.0 in all AP/honors, and colleges will work thru that detail.
For categorization input and interpreting Naviance scattergrams (helps to understand round of admission and whether applicant was hooked) ask your GC. Obviously the metrics and categorization might be a bit different if applying test optional.
ETA: CDS is just for matriculants, not admitted students. Admitted data is better when one is categorizing schools…see if you can get that on the school’s website, or student newspaper. Also, the average GPA on CDSs are typically suspect, as there is no commonly accepted way to calculate that number.
I just want to point out a known flaw in Naviance. There is no way to account for anything that would be a hook (recruited athlete, big donor family) or give an admissions bump (legacy student, ED application). There was a student from D’s class who was accepted to Princeton with a 1340 SAT/27 ACT. Her acceptance caused a massive jump in applications from our school, mostly from students with higher test scores who thought they were a shoo in. They were wrong, of course, as she got in as an athlete.
Add URM to that list of characteristics of admitted students that would indicate that “your mileage my vary”.
In general, the kids without hooks or spikes or URM status should be looking at non tippy-top schools (in fact, non-T20 schools) where their stats put them solidly at or above 75th percentile for admitted students, to compensate for their lack of any of those criteria. It’s really very sad that academic qualifications, no matter how stellar, are not enough. It shouldn’t be that academics seem to be a secondary criteria for athletes, legacies, donor, or URM students. But it’s the current reality, and best to take that into account when planning.
If it has automatic admission (or scholarship) (including to your major, if it admits by major) for stats that you have, and you can afford it, then it is a safety.
For colleges that have automatic admission criteria, they may use any one or more of GPA (often recalculated by the college), class rank, and/or standardized test scores. That varies by college.
When colleges show stats of new frosh on their web sites, GPA may be based on college recalculation, which is not always described. If using Naviance at your high school, the GPA used would be what is used by the high school to put data into Naviance.
Admitted tend to have higher stats than enrolled, since the strongest admits are more likely to have other attractive admission offers, some of which some of them choose.
Note that if your major is something popular relative to department capacity at the college, expect admission to be more difficult (and if you apply to an unpopular major and try to change into a popular major later, you may find it difficult to change because it is full). Computer science and engineering majors are often examples of this at the more selective state flagship universities and larger private schools of similar selectivity. Nursing is very commonly such a major (in addition, many nursing major programs have high college GPA requirements to weed out enrolled students).
Is T50 the list of colleges ranked by US News or Forbes or Princeton?
Another common problem is that for universities that admit by division or major, admission stats or Naviance plots for the whole university may not reflect the varying level of selectivity between different divisions or majors. For example, you may see a green dot in a lower stat range admitted to CMU, but you do not know which of CMU’s divisions the student was admitted to (SCS is significantly more selective than others).
In general, schools that admit less than 20-25% of applicants cannot be considered a safety, or a likely match, for anyone. And ucbalumnus is correct. Some schools who admit by major can be very selective for certain majors, while for other majors, they may have a 60% or more acceptance rate.
I think that a better approach is to consider what your child wants to study, what size school they want, how certain they are that they won’t wind up switching majors, what geographical region, whether they are looking for a certain peer group, proximity to or within a city. The less sure they are of what they want to major in, the less advisable it would be to choose a small school, because big schools have a very wide choice of majors. Then look at your child’s stats, and choose schools that offer what your child wants, and make a list of safety, match, and reach, being sure to consider finances.
However, check whether the majors of possible interest are the ones that are “full” at the school (small or large).
Also be aware that some majors with voluminous requirements or long prerequisite sequences need to have their courses started early, even if they are not “full” and will accept any student who wants to declare the major (but sometimes contingent on being able to complete the major and graduate in a reasonable number of semesters).
Thank you indeed @parentologist @ucbalumnus @helpingmom40 @Mwfan1921 . My daughter is interested in economics. From what we have seen so far, engineering etc seems to be impacted majors. I hear economics is popular too. We will explore using some of the very timely input in this thread. Thank you.
Note that economics major programs vary in math intensity:
Prospective students should consider what level of math they prefer. Some economics departments offer different options of intermediate economics and econometrics courses with different math prerequisites. Pre-PhD students should take more math and statistics beyond the high math described above (e.g. real analysis, probability theory, proof-based linear algebra).
This is very interesting. Appreciate the detail you shared just now. was not aware of this. We will further explore. Thanks again.
These analyses may help in the selection of suitable colleges:
This might have been even more difficult this past year (for students who will start in September 2021) since the pandemic caused some students to postpone university for a year resulting in a jump in applications. I think that there were some unpleasant surprises. I do not know if there is any impact on students starting in September of 2022.
We found it difficult also to be sure what was a safety. We figured that our in-state public university was a safety due to their having an admissions rate over 50% combined with our stats that put us in the top 10% of accepted students. Since my daughters and I happen to have dual citizenship and with more predictable admissions in Canada again this made universities in Canada safeties. Our high school guidance counselors seemed to have a good feel for my daughters’ chances at the in-state public schools (but not for universities in Canada).
Otherwise we just sort of guessed. Our guidance counselors and admissions results generally agreed with our guesses. We did get one surprise but it wasn’t a top preference.
Affordability is indeed also part of being a safety. You should run the NPC if you are not comfortable with full pay, and be very wary of the results if you are divorced or own a farm, small business, or rental property.
Some schools (including many of the famous ones) do not admit by major for undergraduate students. Many schools do admit by major. Computer science and engineering are often more difficult for admissions. I do not know about economics. I have not seen date on admissions by intended major, which to me seems to make it even more difficult to judge what is a safety.
I certainly noticed a variation among the three economics courses that I took (macro, micro, and econometrics). I was a math major, and found econometrics to be one of the harder math classes that I took. I loved it, but then I was a math major.
Thank you. This is where I am in quandary . I have drawn up prelim college list. UW GPA 3.97, SAT 1570. AP Calc AB semester 1 done in school, completed semester 2 at BYU . don’t know how colleges view that and whether it will turn safety into match etc.
We were very conservative in picking the safety schools on my D’s list. She was a very strong student and going into engineering. IMO, there is no harm in picking an auto admit, sure thing school as a safety, whereas there is a big risk to overshooting.
My D’s two safeties had admit rates for 80%. She got a full tuition scholarship and honors college to one in early October because they had rolling admission. That took a huge amount of pressure off the entire application process. The second gave her three big stacking scholarships. Both schools were strong for engineering and job placement and she would have been happy at either.
For matches, her schools ranged from 25-50% acceptance rates. Below 25% admission rates, we considered those schools reaches.
At the recommendation of her guidance counselor, D’s list was 20% reach, 60% match, 20% safeties.
Thanks @momofboiler1 . Auto Admit, rolling admissions are new terms for me. We will dig into that as well. great point. Thanks
This was what our high school guidance counselors recommended, also.