Semi-Chance Me?

<p>This is not specifically about me, per se, but a more general discussion question.</p>

<p>First, the background. I'm Male, Asian, and attending a private high school in DC. I was talking with some of the seniors, and it turns out that for the ED/EA kids, 6 of 8 got into Brown and 5 of 7 got into Stanford. Amazing, I know, but what interests me is one of the people that did not get in. Of the 2 that did not get into Stanford, one is a half-Asian female with relatively good grades, ECs, and such. Compared to the 5 that got in, she's pretty much at the same level (academically, with ECs, etc.)</p>

<p>So my question is this: As an Asian applying to a high-level school in California, is it really that tough?</p>

<p>I have:
4.0 GPA (my school doesn't do weighted)
2330 SAT from a single sitting
237 on the PSAT (I missed one question and they took off 3-whole-freaking points)</p>

<p>Hopefully I'll qualify for the National Merit Scholarship, with a chance at becoming a Finalist, or however that process goes.</p>

<p>Captain or member of multiple school teams and clubs (Quiz Bowl, Math Team, Chess Club, Varsity Tennis)</p>

<p>I've placed well at non-school related mathematics competitions.</p>

<p>Applying for an internship at a Naval Research Lab this summer
About 60 hours of community service at a local Food Assistance Center</p>

<p>Some other EC stuff, but I don't have enough time to list now.</p>

<p>By the end of this year (Junior year), I'm aiming for 8 APs and 4 SAT IIs, with all 4s, 5s, and 750-800s.</p>

<p>And yet, I've been warned about applying to California schools. I was thinking about applying to Stanford (probably as a RD, but I don't know yet). I have quite a few other choices that I really like. I'm looking at:
Harvard
Yale
Princeton
MIT
UChicago
Cornell
Carnegie Mellon
UVA (as a safety? I don't know how "safe" it is)</p>

<p>So yeah, I'll try getting into all of those crazy reaches as well, but what do you think my chances are specifically for Stanford? I hear California's acceptance rate for out-of-state Asians is 3% or something, which seems absolutely ridiculous.</p>