<p>Doesn't that indicate that the cutoff should be 214-215???</p>
<p>It was 219 in 2010 when 99th percentile was 214. This year 99th percentile fell 3 points to 211 (not 212). If TX cut off has a parallel 3 point decline, then TX cut off will be 216 not 214-215.</p>
<p>It doesn’t matter what the 99th percentile is. What matters is how the students do in a particular state and (about) the top 1% of the state make NMSF…that’s what sets the cut-off. The exceptions are the states that have a lot of students with scores that exceed the (seemingly) max cutoff of 223.</p>
<p>As I understand it, m2ck is right, the number of nmsf from each state is determined by the number of high school graduating seniors in each state. The lowest score that allows NMSC to select 1/2a percent of the graduating seniors in a state, is the cut off for that state. So, if students in a particular state do better in a year, the state cut off can rise even if the national 99 percentile score drops. For example, in Pennsylvania the cut off is actually expected to rise this year.</p>
<p>Yes, but I believe there is data that supports TX scores being down to the levels they were when the cutoff was 215. I guess the missing piece is # of grads. This is purely anecdotal, but our school traditionally has about 3 NMSF’s and this year (for 2013) the highest scorer had a 217. Really appreciate how much info is shared here -we need a 216 here in TX, gonna be a nail-biter until Sept!!</p>
<p>Ok, just making sure I was on the same page as everyone else. It seems to me that most people it could be 217, or maybe even 215, but most likely 216, at least from what I have read elsewhere. although, Texas had more test takers this year. Does that typically have any correlation to an increase or decrease in the cutoff?</p>
<p>If anyone has any insights about Arizona as well it would be greatly appreciated. Sorry to hijack this thread a little, but Arizona is pretty similar to Texas in that it had that random 4 point jump last year but also had a small rise in # of test takers. I haven’t read that much about AZ yet on CC, but what is the general consensus about the cutoff increase/decrease? Hoping it goes down 1 point, scored a 212.</p>