<p>I thnk a good way to put it with elite admissions is that the outcome is unpredictable. As Xiggi said, perfectly or equally qualified kids can get rejected. A kid can get into Harvard but not Princeton and another kid can get into Princeton but not Harvard. It is not random but the schools build a class and once you make the "cut" of being worthy of a spot in terms of qualifications, you then might NOT make the cut for a slot if you don't fill a need in the mix of class that they are building. That is why I think you cannot say, "oh my kid did not get into X because he must have been lacking such and such" or "I think my kid got in because he had Y factor." Whatever those factors are may have resulted in a YES at one top school and NO at an equally well regarded and selective elite school. To me, the only way you can really analyze what did not go well for the kid is if he did not get into ANY of the schools on the list. You have to have the "goods" to stand a chance but after that, it is a matter of if that particular school wants you for a slot in the make up of their class. If they have ten sheep raising rural VT kids who are also musician/athletes/scholars, your turn may or may not come up and it is unpredictable. You can't say (as so many people in the community love to tell such kids), "you can get in anywhere with your qualifications and profile." Not so, because with the most elite colleges, it is unpredictable if they will tap you for a slot even though you are just as "qualified" as others who get a slot. But what IS predictable to some degree are a kids' chances at getting into at least ONE selective school on a balanced list of schools IF the student has all the "right stuff". The way I see it, if a kid has everything that is needed (and I am not talking just basic numbers like we see on the "what are my chances" posts), then it is not that hard to judge that the student will very likely make it into at least one reach or match school on their list if their list is a VERY appropriate list with balance. </p>
<p>Speaking of my own children, we never counted on any of the highly selective schools individually. Too unpredictable. But we did feel that they were reasonable and appropriate candidates for these schools on their list. They were in the "running". We did not know which one would pick them but felt they had what it took to get in. That is why I call it unpredictable but I will qualify that by saying it is predictable as to the kids' chances or reasonableness of admissions at certain KINDS of schools. Who gets tapped at any specific ONE elite school is not predictable. As I said, an excellent candidate can get tapped at X but not Y and another kid get into Y but not X. </p>
<p>One must need to build a balanced list and carefully assess if the candidate is in the running for schools on that list. In this regard, Mudgette is certainly in the running for the most selective schools and was originally undershooting a bit. However, she is not a shoo in at all and is in the running with a pile of too many kids equally qualified with great profiles for those same slots. That is why the outcome at any one particular school is not predictable. However, it IS predicatable that with a balanced and appropriate list of reaches, matches, safeties, that a kid like her should end up with some fine choices. Building the right list is what is needed. AND not pining for one particular elite school on the list but liking many. With the top schools in the land, nobody has a guarantee of getting in. But with TOP students (in every respect, not just academics), it is safe to say they are going to get into SOME selective schools but likely not all and it is hard to predict which ones. If someone has a balanced list, they should not be totally shut out IF they have an excellent profile. A list with all reaches....not good.....too unpredictable. I do not think the selection of candidates is random but we cannot predict on the outside if a top kid will earn a slot at Podunk, but we can predict if she is in the running of getting into at least one Podunk of similar selectivity. </p>
<p>If it were utterly random, why bother with how one presents their application? It is way more than just stats. You have to have the stats, the profile, an excellent application, and then fit a need in their class. That last part, none of us can predict.</p>
<p>Susan
Edit...I did not see Blossom's post when I was writing my post here. The idea to point to unpredicatable rather than random....we are thinking alike!</p>