If you have reason to believe that financially your daughter’s ED choice will work for you then yes, ED is a solid strategy. I haven’t seen evidence that ED financial aid packages are greater than RD packages, but I see plenty of evidence that actual need-based family contributions under ED come out reliably close to those estimated by the net price calculators.
Where it is a risk financially is if you have a complicated financial profile, where you are looking for merit aid or where you might get even better packages if you were to compare and negotiate. The assumption that merit aid would be greater for ED applicants seems off base to me as there would be no reason to incentivize an ED application.
I believe that an ED application can give a signficant admissions boost, especially for a lop-sided or borderline student, but the advantage varies by school. It worked well for my son, and I am personally grateful that he had that option.He has never regretted it.
If a student has a clear first choice and you are reasonable assured that the money will work out, then I’d say the risk of not applying ED is greater than the risk of applying. You don’t your daughter to miss the best shot.
One other point that may or may not be meaningful: After receiving an ED acceptance, the student is meant to withdraw all other applications, so they never know whether they would have been accepted to other schools on thire short list. This sounds petty, but it does mean that they miss out on the excitement when the acceptances start rolling in in March/April.
Many ED applicants are deferred instead of being out right rejected. This means that their applications go into the RD pool and that they can apply to other schools, including those that offer EDII, which is a second try at another ED choice. As far as I know there is no ED waitlist; just accept, reject, defer. Other schools will not know about a student’s ED rejections or deferral, though if they don’t withdraw other applications after receiving an ED acceptance theyrun the risk of losing the ED offer.
I would also note that there may be an emotional element in applying ED. The student is told that they must love the ED school above all others with all their heart and soul, but at the same time be prepared to bounce back and transfer that unconditional love to another choice should things not work out. I subscribe to the wisdom of having all other applications ready to go well before the ED decision date, and trying not to get overly and exclusively emotionally invested in the ED school.
Also, individual schools have different rules about simultaneous non-binding applications: some allow EA applications, some allow State University applications. It’s a good idea to take advantage of any back-up plans that are offered.