Employers will go on looking for degrees because it’s tough to find a business at this point that isn’t complex enough to require significant reading, thinking, and communication abilities, and often much more. We don’t make a lot of simple jobs anymore. I think this is a mistake, but this is where we are, and I don’t see us pulling away from that. The degree’s also a vetting point for “will show up, do assigned work, etc.”
For trade schools to sub in for college, trades would have to be regulated to an extent that’d make you scream. First they’d have to be regulated much (much) more aggressively against hiring/promotion/wage/opportunity bias against women, older workers, and various minorities, and then you’d also need licensure and continuous retraining requirements for those trade schools that would essentially push them back to the community colleges and in some areas state universities. If you think OSHA’s a headache now, it’d be a headache from another dimension in that imaginary world. You’d also wind up with a lot more employee lawsuits against employers who’ve been running things slipshod and not actually taking care of business in legal ways; the employees would be more demanding.
All of which, btw, I’m in favor of. We need a large technical workforce that can do practical things with hands. But it needs to be an equitable workforce that can and does read and do math, is well-versed in the principles that drive the things they’re working with as well as specifics of the systems, is less inclined to cowboy, and works like it’s professional. It would not be cheap, but it would be good. I think it would also feel like a different business: less male, for one thing, and with considerably less chronic bellyaching about customers, suppliers, equipment, etc. It’d sound more like other professions.
I live in a town that does have such tradespeople – and also has a lot of normal tradesmen. I can count on the normal tradesmen to make an expensive mess of anything they haven’t done a million times before, and to do a fairly slapdash job of the things they know well. Yesterday I was walking around and saw littered all over the sidewalk a printed ad for various general-trades services weighted with an alligator clip – someone had driven down the street just throwing these things out the window at each house. I looked him up – ex-firefighter and arena football player with a contracting business and what looks like some chronic good-ol-boyism. I’m guessing he doesn’t even show up himself, just hires the cheapest labor he can and sends them out. I wouldn’t hire this person even if he was half the price of others, which he wouldn’t be. I pay extra to hire people who’ll do a job for real, and as it happens most of them also have degrees. It’d be fantastic to have more of them around.