While we wrestle with whether or not to require masks in indoor spaces, and whether or not school will be held in-person next fall, I think that we can get a glimpse of the future by looking at Israel.
Israel was able to successfully immunize over half of its population 12 and up. They were shutting down vaccine centers about two months ago, at a time when we were just starting to be able to offer the vaccine to most healthy adults. In fact, I believe that they went ahead and immunized their medically fragile/vulnerable children younger than 12, too. They most certainly have NOT been able to enforce social distancing, as evidenced by the enormous gathering of ultra-orthodox Jews at Mount Meron on Lag B’Omer holiday a couple of weeks ago, that led to the stampede deaths. Surprisingly, there has been no bump in the rate of Covid after that holiday, where many people gather indoors and outdoors. The rate continues to drop. More information will be available in another couple of weeks, because people were crowded together in bomb shelters during the latest round of missile attacks from Gaza. But yesterday’s number (11 new infections in a country with a population of 9.2 million), indicates that they’ve more than just turned the corner. That rate would be the equivalent of approximately 400 new infections a day in the US. We’re currently at over 14000, but we are approaching 50% vaccination rate for people 12 and over in the Northeast, and hopefully will reach it in most of the country soon.
I am now extremely hopeful for a return to full in-person activity at colleges in the fall. Here’s to hoping that college officials are forward thinking, and require immunization for all students, teachers, staff, and hold in-person orientation activities in August. Let’s all just hope that a vaccine-resistant variant doesn’t arise, or that if it does, an effective booster is released very quickly.
While the ultra orthodox idiots were not socially distancing, the rest of the population was overall doing so, much more so than they are in the USA. In the city where I live now, I have seen the crowded bars and parties full of people between the ages of 18 to 30 with no masks and no distancing. More than half the states in the USA have no COVID related precautions, and some states have gone so far as to ban local governments from taking any precautions.
I also think that vaccinations were more evenly distributed in Israel, so that 50% was more or less everywhere. This means that infected individuals were interacting with as many vaccinated individuals as unvaccinated. In the USA, a state can have county level vaccination rates between 59% vaccinated in one county, while another county has only 17% of their population vaccinated. So in some locations, a contagious individual are going to interact with a much higher proportion of unvaccinated people, increasing the chances that they will further spread the virus.
While some states will see numbers similar to those in Israel, some states will see continued outbreaks popping up across the state, as the pandemic reaches more isolated areas which have not been exposed to the virus and have very low vaccination rates. Of course, these states will generously share these outbreaks with states which have suppressed their own outbreak…
My friends tell me that the country’s been wide open for a couple of months now. The only measure that’s in place, is the vaccine, and it’s obviously working!
I have the good fortune to live in the Northeast, a part of the US where most people eagerly sought to get vaccinated. Rates here are plummeting. I don’t know whether that’s happening in states where most are refusing the vaccine.
Our state has pretty high vaccine uptake (2nd highest % in US with at least 1 shot and high % fully vaccinated as well), but it’s still slow in getting new infection rates down.
They finally dropped today. We have a lot of visitors but arrivals have to have had neg covid test 72 hrs prior to arrival to avoid 10 day quarantine.
Don’t know why our numbers haven’t budged downward much because our state self of health doesn’t release any info about who is testing positive—whether there are clusters, specific communities or what — no details.
As of yesterday 39% of all Americans were fully vaccinated, and at least 25 states have at least 40% of their population fully vaccinated, which is super promising. I think that cases will drop more and more, as the % vaccinated increases. I truly think things will be close to normal around the fall, provided no new variant comes out.
I hope the vaccine gets authorized for kids under 12, right now they are the most vulnerable population and kids are notorious for being unhygenic. They’d probably trade their mask for a chocolate bar
Arguably, is there really an end until other countries can get the vaccine? Hopefully we can share the wealth and help the vaccination effort in other countries.
