<p>Welcome newbs! … We are now 38.</p>
<p>astrophy918 (NY)
beefinbj (US citizen abroad) - trilingual (reading, writing, speaking in all of them)
Boggler
carolightning
cicero<em>oratore (MA) - physics/math
Clamzoni</em>of_RI- Well-rounded w/ emphasis on Biochem. and Tenor Voice
daffodils
dan92
DoleWhip
DreamHigh91
dx1992
fluffysheep (IN)- the blunt well-rounded type with a special thing for science
geoindy
goyankees1219 ¶
gunther6456
HurtLocker (So. Cal) - well-rounded with a leaning toward music, psych, and history
ItchyTorso (Switzerland)
JenRocket
KRNpro (WA) - well-rounded poor man with a inclination towards the humanities
Macarenaps (Peru) well rounded
MorganSimone (NJ)
mrbopalop1 (WI)
MSauce
Neapolitan
nickwasy
pappa1 (NYC Suburbs)
passiongirl
plumazul (Maryland) Hispanic, Concert Pianist, Chemistry/Music/premed trilingual …
qizixite(northeast) interested in some sort of mathy subject
raving(SC)
RedlinetoHarvard
serendipityyy
simplywaiting (GA)
SouthKP
Tharp993
tracyxxx
vikroz (MI) - cello, science
Zachboy</p>
<p>This time last year, the 2013 Waitlist thread had 74 followers.</p>
<p>If people want to state their locations and interests, we’ll add to the list. Thanks!</p>
<p>Only 38? I think there are far more cross-admits this year which is a good sign. Hopefully a lot of people chose YPSM over Harvard or even somewhere else for whatever reason. Only a few more days until the article is published.</p>
<p>A few days…not bad. Not bad at all. I want to really commend everyone for waiting. Someone called our generation “the microwave generation” meaning we want everything quick and easy. So at least you all made it this far =). If what the other CC-er posted was correct, the adcom begins to reconvene tomorrow.</p>
<p>The Harvard Waitlist is more like a slow cooker. It takes a lot longer until we’re ready to eat, but either way we get burned.</p>
<p>Hello again guys; I played around with some Common Data Sets today while not studying for AP tests and I have some interesting numbers. Here is my methodology as well as my results. Just read the bold if you are uninterested in the how-to:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>I took the top ten non-Harvard institutions<a href=“using%20US%20News%20and%20World%20Report%20rankings”>/B</a> which had complete Common Data Sets online. I then typed out the admission numbers from their most recent data set onto a spreadsheet. These colleges are: Yale, Brown, Princeton, Dartmouth, Cornell, Stanford, MIT, Northwestern, Johns Hopkins, and Emory. I skipped over CalTech, Penn, Columbia, UChicago, Duke and WashU because the information they had was incomplete.</p></li>
<li><p>I found the ratio of Waitlisted people to accepted students (not including those placed on the waitlist). For example Stanford offered a waitlist spot to 1354 last year while accepting 2299 people (2299 = 2426 - 127). So Stanford’s X-number was .589 (X-number is just a random term I am using to describe this number).</p></li>
<li><p>I found the average X-number among the ten colleges described in part 1 and extrapolated Harvard’s waitlist number based on that average and median X-number.
On average top colleges waitlist 58.6% of the students who they admit by April 1st.
On ‘median’ top colleges waitlist 52.9% of the students who they admit by April 1st.
The numbers are so different because Hopkins waitlists more people than they admit (shame on them).</p></li>
<li><p>I also found the average and median percent of people who accept the waitlist offer.
On average students accept the waitlist offer from these schools 61.6% of the time.
On ‘median’ students accept the waitlist offer from these schools 60.5% of the time.
Hurray! The numbers are very similar!</p></li>
<li><p>I then found the average and median of the percent of people who are accepted off these school’s waitlists.
On average top colleges accept 9% of the students placed on their waitlists.
On ‘median’ top colleges accept 10.3% of the students placed on their waitlists.
Blame the difference between average and median on Cornell, which admitted zero students off their waitlist in their most recent Common Data Set.</p></li>
<li><p>We know that Harvard accepted 2110 people this year. I assume Harvard’s use of the waitlist is similar to the ten colleges mention in section 1. and I used the numbers from section 3. to say this;
2110<em>.529 < The number of waitlisted students < 2110</em>.586
So ** 1116 < the number of waitlisted students < 1236
Using that same process with the numbers from parts 4 and 5 I can say this:
675 < the number of people who accept a spot on the waitlist < 761
and finally,
62 < the number of students accepted off the waitlist. < 78</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Obviously, the big assumption is that Harvard’s practices when it comes to the waitlist are similar to those of other top colleges. Also, my numbers do not account for yield, which we are all hoping will drastically change. But still, this is my prediction: between 62 and 78 people will be accepted out of 675 to 761.
Average those numbers and I think that 70 people will be accepted out of a waitlist of 718 hopeful people.</p>
<p>I wanted to just post the spreadsheet but the format was awful. Still, I have the numbers in raw form if there are any requests for analysis.</p>
<p>DISCLAIMER: FOR ALL I KNOW I AM TOTALLY WRONG.</p>
<p>-Optimism!</p>
<p>Wow, that’s extremely obsessive yet pretty cool. I don’t know if that helps or not. As you said, the biggest factor is of course yield. So this means nothing if the yield is closer to 80% or under 75%.</p>
<p>Thanks Gunther; it was either do that or study for APs. It is true that yield is going to matter, but remember that I try to minimize the problem with change in yield by using so many schools’ data. Also, the 70 waitlist acceptances unfortunately already corresponds to a yield of around 75%.</p>
<p>I just say to relax ^_^. All these statistics and calculations will probably be off anyway once the official statements are publicized. So we should be on cruise and kumbaya mode until then lol.</p>
<p>Well also remember certain people do turn down the waitlist. I believe the waitlist yield is similar to the regular yield. Some people don’t want to switch from the institution they matriculated at because they’ve already fallen in love. I am suffering from the not studying APs syndrome as well.</p>
<p>Ah but MorganSimone, this is my cruise and kumbaya mode! Still, I see your point. I actually didn’t know there were two main verses in kumbaya. Cool;</p>
<p>For the sun that rises in the sky
For the rythm of the falling rain
For all life, great or small
For all that’s true, for all you do</p>
<p>Kumbaya my lord, Kumbaya
Kumbaya my lord, Kumbaya
Kumbaya my lord, Kumbaya
O Lord Kumbaya</p>
<p>For one second on this world you made
For the love that will never fade
For a heart beating with joy
For all that’s real, for all we feel</p>
<p>LOL AHAHAHAHAHA! That definitely brought a smile to my face =). Ultimate kudos for that!</p>
<p>This thread is becoming more familial. How nice. :)</p>
<p>Yes, I really am enjoying all this =).</p>
<p>Qixite, you did a good, detailed analysis. I agree with the estimate of 80 people admitted off the waiting list. I don’t think that includes any Z-listers–that’s an additional 32 seats for legacies, etc.</p>
<p>Haven’t the Z-listers from last year already been included in the number of admits this year? To deduct them from the 80 waitlist admits this year would be to count them twice.</p>
<p>My numbers may be off (verify them using last year’s numbers), but you get the picture.</p>
<p>Bottom line, if there are 800 people on the active waitlist, and 80 get admitted, that’s a 10% acceptance rate. Also, I assume that the Z-listers (for 2015) come out of the same waitlist pool, so add them in, and the percentage admitted off the waitlist this yearr goes slightly higher.</p>
<p>Still, odds are slim, but someone on the CC list is going to get a phone call, so stay tuned.</p>
<p>Hi Neapolitan, thanks for the compliment! I know that the Z-list messes with all estimates but my assumption is that all Z-list messiness equals out. To be entirely honest, Harvard can accept as many people as they want through the Z-list and deal with the repercussions next year; so I think that trying to predict the Z-list’s affect on the waitlist is pointless.</p>
<p>On another note, I looked through last year’s waitlist thread and found that about 20 people were admitted out of 145 on CC’s list of waitlisted people. Given that about 100 people were accepted last year, that implies an active waitlist of 725, which makes me happy because that’s what my analysis predicts! Still, my disclaimer applies. </p>
<p>Another random fact… According to this article, “Yale waitlisted 932… and Princeton waitlisted 1,451.”</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2010/4/6/senior-school-college-students/[/url]”>http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2010/4/6/senior-school-college-students/</a></p>
<p>If anyone else has statistics on college’s waitlist size, please share!</p>
<p>-Optimism!</p>
<p>Wow, qiz! I love having a mathematician on board doing predictions for us! Thanks, you’re awesome.</p>
<p>FWIW, I still say that all the numbers are lower than what they will be this year since more kids applied to more schools The number of applications increased drastically at HYPSM (add the increases all together – it’s thousands – except Yale which stayed the same) and yet the number of actual applicants remained the same.</p>
<p>I predict some shake-ups this year–lower yields all around. Of course, I could be wrong.</p>
<p>Optimisim! Rah!</p>
<p>BTW, I am suspicious of Harvard and Penn and all institutions that don’t make their numbers public. I suspect Harvard and Penn waitlists more students than other top schools but they don’t want to admit it. Why else wouldn’t they say?</p>
<p>Actually last year there were about 25 that got off the wait list. I can’t remember the actual number but it was a reasonable amount. I am sure someone here knows the answer.</p>
<p>For Harvard or Penn, simplywaiting?
And they keep it secretive because they feel like it? What school wants to take the kind of heat Duke’s been taking for its ridiculous waitlist?</p>
<p>SimplyWaiting, I counted 21 on the waitlist thread from last year. The last reported update was on 5/30/2009 when there were 16 acceptances out of 145 waitlistees. I trawled through the rest of the thread and found five more acceptances including some Z-listees. Still, please prove me wrong! The more people who were accepted the better!</p>
<p>Gunther: that is exactly the point, Duke is catching flak (I don’t know if that’s an actual phrase) because their waitlist is humongous, so you have to wonder if Harvard’s isn’t even bigger. </p>
<p>HurtLocker: I also sadly believe that Harvard and Penn have massive waitlists. Still,</p>
<p>-Optimism!</p>