<p>so far i have 8 reaches on my list. i calculated the probability of getting into at least 1, and it's 78.62%! my dad wants me to apply to 10 reaches, which sounds like a great idea. how many reaches are you all applying to? </p>
<p>ps i'm not applying to them for the sake of it; i'm genuinely interested in the schools i'm applyin to</p>
<p>Also a rising senior. I’m thinking about 3 myself. However, I like your idea. What are your credentials and what schools? The probability thing is encouraging…</p>
<p>Your method is flawed: the probabilities aren’t independent, i.e. if 20% of the students get into one school, and 15% get into another, that doesn’t mean of everyone applying to both, 32% get into at least one (.2 + .15 - (.2*.15) = .32). Rather, probably more like 25% get into at least one, as about 10%+ (the very top kids applying to both) will likely get into both, as they’re highly desirable for both schools.</p>
<p>Remember that this type of number-crunching isn’t really accurate. I assume you did some probability multiplication based on acceptance rates, but this is only accurate if you assume (incorrectly) that everybody has a (number)% chance of getting in. You have to remember that the 10% accepted at an Ivy, for example, are the very best (or close) 10% of the pool.</p>
<p>Also, remember that the more colleges you apply to, the more work you’ll have to do on applications, which has the potential to lower the overall quality.</p>
<p>I have a big list going on, and currently have 8 reaches. It goes up and down every day, but by the time applications start, I’m gunna have to trim this down haha</p>
<p>i did 1-(probability of getting rejected at every school on the reach list)…that calculation yields the probability of getting into at least one of them</p>
<p>and i don’t mind if i have to spend tons of time on applications. it will be worth it. my dad told me why play the lottery for $1 million if i can play for $100 million (he used this analogy to show how applying to tons of reaches is a good idea)</p>
<p>Your calculation is wrong, chsow is correct.</p>
<p>The whole point is that the chances of getting into Harvard for every student isn’t 7%. Its maybe 40% for some students, and .01% for others. The acceptance rates aren’t your chances of getting in, they’re the amount of students they accept. Obviously applying to more reaches is going to increase your chances, but you’re probably not going to have that great of chances to get into any serious reaches.</p>
<p>I’m applying to 2 reaches…maybe I should apply to more?</p>
<p>Admissions is random so the scattershot method is understandable.</p>
<p>Scattershot may be a good strategy for the ivies/top schools if you genuinely have the stats for them. The problem is kids who don’t think they may get into one by widely applying. They almost never do and often blow their chances at the best schools they have a chance at because they don’t focus on those applications.</p>
<p>Admissions is only random at a handful of schools and among those with a chance in the first place.</p>
<p>As everybody has pointed out, this method of probability calculation doesn’t work, because admissions aren’t random.</p>
<p>Why play the lottery for $1 million when you have a .01% chance of winning when you could play the lottery for $500,000 and a 20% chance of winning?</p>
<p>Realistically assess your qualifications for getting into colleges, and choose your reach colleges strategically. There’s nothing to be gained from spamming an application to every Ivy if you really don’t have the stats to get in.</p>
<p>a friend of mine who used to post here applied to 12 of the top 20 schools and was rejected by every single one.</p>
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<p>yes this is spot on, anyone who understands probability rather than blindly performing it knows that there is no reason to assume independence between schools. Schools look for and generally observe similar factors in applicants like top academics, commitment to extra curriculars etc. So there would definitely be a positive correlation between getting into different top schools. So if your profile is significantly more qualified than the average applicant’s your chance of getting into at least one of the 8 would be higher than 78% perhaps 90 or 95%, and if you are not as qualified you could have a 20-30% chance of getting into one or more. </p>
<p>All in all it’s a silly analysis, if you are within range, just apply to many that suit your interests. </p>
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<p>just because you might not understand the process, doesn’t make it random, while it is subjective there are key factors which get people into many places and keep others out. As an outsider you might see a top scorer get rejected and a low scorer get in, but you have not read essays and seen recs making it difficult to understand decisions, because of a lack of information. Students also lie about their achievements either to be put in or kept out of the limelight.</p>
<p>in fact here’s a simple example to disprove independence. I know someone who applied to Harvard, Princeton, Yale, MIT and 4 other colleges with ~20% acceptance rate and made it to all 8. If independence were true his chances of making to all 8 should have been </p>
<p>1/0.15^8 = 1/3.9 Million</p>
<p>probability is way too small for independence to be true so proof by contradiction. </p>
<p>There have been other examples on this website of people getting to every reach they applied to or all but one reach, it happens way too frequently for anyone in their right mind to think admissions are independent like a group of lotteries. That’s what they tell you to make you feel better when you are rejected after trying hard.</p>
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<p>It looks like math isn’t your father’s strong suit, because this is a terrible analogy. It’s also mathematically wrong: your odds of winning a big jackpot are actually better when the pot is $1 million than when it’s $100 million. That’s because many more people play when the pot rises in value, so even if your number hits on the $100 million pot, you’ll have to share the payout with more winners who also chose the same number. </p>
<p>But let’s leave this aside for now, and look at the fundamental flaw in your college selection strategy. Namely, this is all reaches, no matches or safeties. Anyone can come up with a list of 8 reaches, but first you have to do the much harder work of figuring out at least one place where you can definitely get in, and where you’d be happy to attend. You’re fortunate enough to not need to worry about cost, so you’ll have an easier time coming up with a safety or two. If you’re successful at ED, then no worries, but you have to plan for what to do if all of your reaches slip through your fingers. Because it happens. Have your mom and dad take a look at the stats for last spring for the students who were accepted to all of your reach schools. Lots of kids with high GPAs and test scores and impressive ECs were denied.</p>
<p>Quite frankly, I don’t see the point of applying to a billion reaches. As others have said before, the probabilities don’t quite work out to how you would like them, so you are basically throwing money down the drain. In addition, applying to a whole bunch of reaches is likely to lower the quality of each individual application: most high-ranking schools require additional essays, and you will just end up rushing or neglecting certain schools. In fact, I think you will have a much better chance if you can choose one or two reaches that you can dedicate yourself whole-heartedly to. I promise you, colleges can TELL which applicants just rolled out twenty applications to completely different schools for the heck of it, and which applicants truly love the school and want to get in very, very badly, despite slightly “inferior” stats. And many times they will choose the latter. So really, you gain absolutely no advantage by applying to a lot of reaches. </p>
<p>I also think you shouldn’t turn your nose up at matches or safeties. Choosing a good safety that you love is, to my mind, as important or more important than choosing your reaches. There are so many excellent small, unknown schools out there that make good safeties, and that probably will care much more about you than your reaches.</p>
<p>Have you noticed that the percentage accepted at the top schools has been dropping to very low numbers? The reason is that more people are taking this philosophy. The top schools are getting lots of applications from applicants who have essentially no chance. Perhaps it is good for the economy - they hire more admission staff to read the applications. However, they are choosing from the same pool of qualified applicants each time.</p>
<p>Those who are telling you about lack of statistical independence are correct. Let me put it to you concretely in an exaggerated fashion, which often helps me understand concepts. Suppose the reason that Harvard would reject you were very low SAT scores. Unless you stood out in some remarkable way, this would get you rejected there in any year you applied. When Princeton, Yale, MIT, Stanford, etc. look at your application, they would see the same thing and reject you as well. You would have no higher chance of getting accepted to any of them than to each of them.</p>
<p>Water tends to seek its own level, and people generally get accepted to the schools that are “right” for them in academic caliber and fit. It is always worth going for a few reaches because you may not be correctly estimating what your proper “level” is. In this case, you will probably get into one of them and be happy. If you were underestimating your package and your reaches were actually closer to matches, you might get into five of the ten reaches you applied to (people do!). However, you can only go to one school in the end, so you have little but bragging rights in that scenario. You are much better off doing the best you can to estimate your chances, and apply to a few reaches.</p>
<p>if your screen name means that you’re from Massachusetts, then you better make the odds even tougher! Girls from MA are one of the most competitive demographics, as we were told at a college info session!</p>
<p>i stand corrected; you are all absolutely right when you say that the events are not independent.</p>
<p>nowhere did i say that i’m not applying to any match or safety schools…this thread is just specifically about my reaches. my dad wants me to apply to 10 reaches, 5 matches, and 2 safeties. so far my matches are wake forest and university of san diego (i need 3 more). my 2 safeties are elon and clemson.</p>
<p>@SDonCC, very true. it’s competitive around here!</p>