Last year someone received a rejection letter the day after Martin Luther King.
Good so far!
National Merit was sending out the first wave of letters I believe on Jan 6. Those letters were not rejections they were letters to individuals that did not meet the criteria (did not complete their applications.) Those kids didn’t intend to move on to finalist.
Jan 31 they will disqualify the students who did not submit their SAT scores.
@LoveTheBard is correct. Letters are mailed out to students in February. Their site says Feb 13. Letters to schools will be sent on Feb 6.
Everyone should also keep in mind that NM initially shared that the confirming SAT would be no higher than a 209 index. I have read on another thread NM has stated the confirming SAT index score is 206. An SAT index that confirms the PSAT score, your school providing a thumb’s up on your being named a NMF and a transcript of solid grades is expected to be enough. 15K out of 16K are great odds.
Most are probably worried about grades. One or two C’s might knock you out in a particularly difficult year. The uncertainty can go either way, as mentioned above, but many probably think that it’s a greater degree of uncertainty than in the past, just given the new test and not knowing how many SF’s there are out there.
@JBStillFlying “but many probably think that it’s a greater degree of uncertainty than in the past, just given the new test and not knowing how many SF’s there are out there” – I’m not sure I follow. Worried about grades I can understand if the student has two or more Cs. Worried because of the new test and not knowing how many SF there are out there?
We knew the confirming SAT score would not exceed 209 because that is what the nice people at NMC consistently told people that called. It’s since been reported by someone on CC, approximately a month ago, that they had a conversation with NMC and the SAT index has to be at least a 206 to qualify as a confirming score. To be considered, the SAT needed to be taken by December so by now every SF has their SAT score and just needs to calculate the score to an index to see if they qualify from a confirming score perspective.
As for not knowing how many SF there are out there, it’s no different than any other year. As the NMC stated in its letter, approximately 16K. When they set the selection index by state, one could assume they identified a number knowing that a certain percentage would fall off (not submit the app, not meet the SAT index qualifying score, may not have consistently good grades through high school or, in the rare instance, not earn the recommendation of their school.)
@paveyourpath - it’s grades I’m referring to, and not necessarily a low GPA. I personally know kids who have been dinged due to a couple of C’s in the past, and there was a poster on cc last year who reported the same thing (I think it was one C in a year-long class). Yet, others have reported in other years that having a couple of C’s didn’t hurt them. Conventional wisdom on cc (you might know differently?) seems to be that it’s a crap shoot with those C’s in ANY given year. Add to that the fact that the new PSAT distribution was pretty funky up at the high end and you just plain old have more uncertainty about outcomes this time around. As I mentioned earlier, we don’t really know how NMSC arrived at “approximately 16,000”. Did they short some states (like they shorted MN) and allow others to go way over their allocated target? Did they allow for a systematic discrepancy and end up with more (or fewer) than the usual 16,200-16,400 total SF’s than they usually do? If the latter, they will be more stringent (or more generous) than in prior years in terms of cutting back to the number of Finalists. If the former, then they won’t. As (at least IMHO) there is a positive probability attached to either scenario, that means that the expected error is greater than in prior years. Hope that makes sense :-B
Your comment in #25 assumes that the total number of SF’s hasn’t changed much from prior years. Do you know something the rest of us don’t? If so please share!
@JBStillFlying I understand, I didn’t reference GPA. I agree with you a couple of Cs or more is reason for concern as where that breaking point is we don’t know.
Just my opinion but I don’t agree with the perceived uncertainty because it’s a new PSAT. My understanding is in past years the confirming SAT score was not publicized. This year, we have the benefit of knowing what the SAT selection index will be for a confirming SAT. The compression at the top was dealt with when they determined what the PSAT indexes would be to qualify for NMSF.
My comment in #25 that the total number of SFs hasn’t changed much from prior years is based on the information previously released by NMC that approximately 16K are selected as NMSF and the letter sent out announcing NMSF which stated approximately 16K NMSF. It’s really just a matter of having taken the scores and filtering to the top ~16K scores which was the frustration of many as to why it takes so long for the process to reveal the NMSF.
We only have a couple of weeks to find out for sure. I just don’t think there is much uncertainty other than those sitting with some concerning grades. I suspect it’s the same every year. Good luck to everyone!
Definitely a good thing that they released - at least by phone - the SAT qualifying score. Didn’t realize that was a break from previous as that 1960 seemed to be common knowledge. So yeah, that should reduce uncertainty surrounding the SAT to the extent that kids weren’t able to nail a 209 or higher (the safe zone).
Here’s to lack of bad news this week and next, and fantastic news in Feb! [-O<
@JBStillFlying do (or anyone else here) you happen to think that a higher confirming SAT score might offset any weaknesses elsewhere, like a “C”? Or do you think that once you clear the qualifying score minimum hurdle, that factor is off the board? Thx
@Tex151 - no clue. Am as in the dark as everyone else. The only thing I’ve heard is that they don’t accept appeals on GPA (or don’t anymore). Still, I’d request the school counselors to look into any adverse decision that doesn’t seem right, even if it’s “non-appealable” (and I’d get clarification on that as well). @paveyourpath has some good points and most probably are NOT surprised by a letter. But some might be. There are always a few, it seems.
anyone get anything in the mail today? Haven’t been home yet.
Nope. And definite worry here. PSAT was 220, easily making cutoff in our state. But she was not well at Oct SAT and index only 204 ?. She figured that would not be a high enough confirming score, but had already reported it. She did re-take in Dec for a 218, but who knows if that lower SAT will ding her. Too late now. But no news yet…
Yeah, we have a couple of Cs freshman years. I am stressed. S is fine - he’s already admitted to UT-Austin computer sci and there’s no NMF $ there anyway. I still want it - could make USC affordable if he were to get in, or be a bargaining chip for merit aid somewhere else. Oh well, can’t control it.
@slaudsmom did she report the 218? Obviously she’s in the clear with that. The Blog that Shall Not Be Named last fall recommended that you just retake and submit higher scores if possible. Not sure anyone’s been dinged for submitting more than one score, one of them being too low as it turns out. Remember - NMSC said “no higher than 209”. They didn’t even have a solid number till recently.
Would a 770 E 750 M be a confirming score? I didn’t know there was an index for the SAT as well. Exhausting! I am more worried about the school’s part of application. We found out about the whole thing about a week and a half before deadline, including the need for teacher recommendation, etc. It was a mad scramble and who knows what the school submitted. The person in charge had never done it before. My kid wrote an essay, albeit heartfelt, that could have used some more editing-- only afterward did I learn on CC that he could have copy/pasted a draft of his college app essay (which he worked on for months). This $ would help so much. The mail pile was so thick today after holiday, it almost killed me.
@binky17 Yes, that’s easily a confirming score.
Thanks @youcee !
@binky17 that score translates to a 229 SI so as long as he submitted it, he cleared the hurdle on the SAT - by a wide margin.
The essay might matter at the “scholar” level, but for purposes of winnowing from SF to finalist it’s not going to be much of a factor, if any. Mostly what matters would be grades, whether you submitted a qualifying SAT score, whether you completed the applications etc. If you are worried about whether the school submitted its documents by the deadline, that can easily be checked by logging into the NMSC portal.
Good luck to him!
Thanks @JBStillFlying ! He scraped by on PSAT though and we still are unsure if that will matter. The grades are good, etc. I tend to worry too much. Good luck to your child!