As previously discussed in this thread (thank you @SevenDad, @sherpa, and @superdomestique!), I come to these questions from the perspective of representing a very high recruit. In those cases, the schools are generally very aggressive in recruiting, talk to the fencer has early as possible, and extend commitments (in varying forms) as early as possible. Leaving aside a full-blown discussion of the nuances of NCAA recruiting rules, truly top-top recruits can receive offers/commitments from top programs, including from DV1 programs, as early as prior to the start of their junior year in high school(!). For the record, I admit to being totally shocked by this.
There are varying reasons, other than retreat from the sport, that fencers absent themselves from tournaments. I do not think that college coaches concern themselves with such absences. As has been posted above, the coaches are very good at scouting potential recruits and do so far further back in each fencer’s career than one might imagine. We met with several coaches who talked about first seeing our child in Y12 competitions! One father related to me how surprised he was to find that coaches with whom they met had been following his child at competition for years. He never saw anyone! That said, recognizing that the large majority are not “top” recruits, students who want to fence in college should try to get to as many of these national events as possible during their junior and into their senior year. As @sherpa points out, this is your best forum. As the recruiting year winds down and fencers commit, coaches are moving down the depth chart to fill slots. I believe that @superdomestique can attest to being in the right place at the right time. A key performance at the right moment can suddenly put a fencer in the running for a major school.
Several coaches told me that when scouting potential recruits they look not for where the fencer is, but for where they think they can take him/her as part of an NCAA team. Of course, with NCAA competition for the most part dominated by 5-touch bouts, coaches are often focusing on a skill set not prioritized quite as much in USAF competition. We are all familiar with the fencer who is just lights-out when it comes to pools but who falters in DEs. Equally the fencer who always drops 1 or 2 pool bouts but somehow always manages to stand on the medal podium at the end. Sometimes it’s the former who is more valuable to a college program.
There is also a unique chemistry to most NCAA fencing teams. Coaches are not only looking for quality fencers, they are looking for people who add to the team dynamic, not for primadonnas. A fencers national and international results are nice, and schools will not hesitate to use them in PR for the school and team, but they further the ball for the team hardly at all toward NCAA success.
While NCAA rules regarding recruitment, in particular talking with coaches, can be very confusing, coaches will generally speak with fencers and parents during unofficial, on-campus visits (just watch out for ‘blackout’ periods!) during junior year of HS. Email can also be a useful tool, particularly for initial introductions and submission of academic records and a basic fencing resume’. We found campus visits to be by far the most effective. The school itself often gets lost in the pursuit of an athletic recruiting slot. Being on the campus really brought the school into sharp focus for our child and really forced the school’s inclusion into the calculus of going there.
As my good friend @superdomestique is fond of pointing out, academics are critical. Schools often take the ‘lesser’ fencer (at least statistically) in favor of a stellar academic candidate.
In summary, 1+1 is at least usually equal to 2. Start with your fencer’s position on the junior rolling points list. The coaches certainly start there. If you are at the top, the recruiting world is probably your oyster. If you are in the middle, you may have to wait your turn until the dust settles on some of the top ones. For this group, I strongly recommend focusing on your top choices. As recently as this year a top program opted for a bird in the hand, committing to a fencer slightly lower down the points list rather than weather the uncertainty of someone at the top who was not ready to make a commitment. Finally, for those on the bottom or not on points lists at all, do your research, put your fencer out there and talk it up with coaches. There are dynamic D3 and club programs that may just be the perfect fit are out there. Good luck all!