Trying to transfer to Umass Amherst w low college gpa; good hs gpa; low sat/act

After a year at a private university which is an absolute joke, I am trying to transfer in the spring semster at UMA.

cumulative college gpa is 2.8
hs gpa was 3.7 (unweighted), 4.1 (weighted)
SAT: 1090
ACT: 23

Activities/extracurriculars are decent, essay should be pretty good

Does my college gpa have more weight than my hs transcript? After finishing the coming fall semester I should be able to bring it up to 3.0. Do I have a good chance of getting in?