that is true, i guess only time will tell
1 Like
My son is getting Forbidden, but for what itās worth, I donāt expect heāll get into Cal 
1 Like
yeah thatās what iām trying to say, in my opinion i donāt think forbidden/not authorized will change for people. especially considering that today is a work day for AOs, and still nobody has reported a change. there have been few early admits reporting that they have ānot authorizedā but none of them have provided proof, so i doubt
1 Like
Well I, for one, believe in your son!
we should also remember that this was discovered just recently. whatās been reliable in the past was viewing the source code as well as the message on the āwithdraw applicationā message.
for example ā i currently have āI am no longer interested in attending UC Berkeley and wish to withdraw my application.ā in the past year, people have believed this to be a good sign and also have actually gotten in. however, this has also been subject to change in the days following the actual drop of decisions. whatās more telling is looking into the source code on the page to find some mention of āfalse, true, true.ā mine is, as of right now, āfalse, false, true.ā but, people have reported this changing, again, in the days right before the release.
1 Like
I understand your sentiment, but this is thread is specifically set up for people who are interested in discussing, researching and obsessing over portal astrology.
1 Like
i would assume berkeley patched these methods, but then again, nobody will know for sure until we get closer to the decision date
1 Like
If the batch is a random sample, then each batch would have similar ratioās, assuming itās a large sample size. I get the poll bias. Iām sure that is in play. My question is whether or not they could be updating the portal/database in batches. My daughter, got unauthorized so Iām grasping for straws.
some people (and, honestly, itās pretty likely) believe that decisions are uploaded on the same rollout basis as application. personally, i applied on the very last day of the application. in the past years (though i donāt have any immediate sources to cite), those who also applied late got some form of an updated astrology two days or even one day before the decision
Some people enjoy obsessing (me). I like to call it āthinking.ā
the thing is that last year, the 1/3 ratio was accurate. so i wouldnāt be surprised if the ratio this year is accurate as well - afterall, CC isnāt filled with average applicants. they are typically very high achieving applicants
2 Likes
i saw somebody yesterday who submitted their app 11/30 (last day) and they got forbidden
hm. maybe itās a sort of weird ranking method, then. iāve seen all sorts of people talk about all sorts of dates and changes. i really donāt know, but Iām sure weāll be getting more developments as the time passes
I highly doubt that uploading of decisions is at all tied to when you submitted. Applications will have been sliced and diced ten ways since November.
4 Likes
It can be accurate, and also batches, right? The batches themselves could also be random. In fact, there could be randomization at various points in the process, in order to prevent some kind of selection bias. Who knows?
Meaning, the batches are random applicants.
hope so lol. iām part of the ānot authorizedā group, so i really hope something changes
3 Likes
this is a pretty good theory, actually. making applications as objective as possible would include all sorts of randomization ā including their dates of submission.
2 Likes
If it were me, I would randomize whenever possible. Itās easy and itās effective.
me too, haha