there is no “91%” chance of anyone getting accepted in college admissions lol, its all opaque and holistic so there’s really no point in worrying about it too much especially when all the decisions haven’t come out yet. I know its hard and stressful but calculating chances and doing chance-me’s is really just logically unhelpful if you are not an admissions officer.
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Yes, 4.38 on the RogersHub/UC calc. That’s why I’m surprised.
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Perhaps I used the wrong framing in describing it as “high stats”, and “first round” or something would have been more accurate.
Were the students who were notified on the 25th “high stats”? As far as we saw posted here, that seems to be the case. (I think we saw GPAs posted from right around 4.2 and up, which tracks to UCSC’s 75% admitted student GPA datapoint from last year.)
Were there “high stats” students who didn’t get notified on the 25th? Absolutely yes. I imagine far more students in the ~4.2+ range haven’t heard yet from UCSC, compared with those who have.
I think patience is the name of the game right now, as frustrating as it might be. I’m trying to remember to take this uncertain time to remind my kid that I’m proud of who they are and who they’re becoming, regardless of which schools they get into (or don’t).
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I know, thanks 
I was just going off the annual chart thing they release with percentages admitted at each campus in each UC GPA range. In 2021, 91% of applicants with over 4.2 capped weighted not major specific got into UCSC. I know it’s no guarantee and just one data point, but it’s still hard not to overthink why no early admit. Apologies if I sound entitled.
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Again, it think it’s because we KNOW about “early admits” for “high stats.” When you hope/ think/ assume (I know what that means) your kid would be one of those, waiting for the rest is hard. Why only UCSD and Cal Poly? I much prefer a hard date (and time)!
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I think my daughter would be considered high stats because she has a 4.6 uc gpa but we have not heard anything. Not sure if it is being sent out by major or? Or she just isn’t getting in.
She has a lot of schools she is waiting on so it will be a few weeks of anxiously checking email and portals but I am reminded often that it will all work out and I need to “chill”. 
Just need to remind myself to do that 80 times a day.
Wishing the best for everyone.
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My daughter was accepted on the 25th, but is not considered high stats
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Congrats to her! 
And thank you for adding the datapoint. Seems like my framing was off, then.
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The UCs use 13 major criteria in making admission decisions. Each UC may weigh the criteria differently. Grades help but they’re looking at a holistic process. The kids who are admitted early may have hit the jackpot relative to the criteria UCSC is prioritizing.
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what’s her major?
I was also admitted on the 25th and I don’t consider myself high stats as well. My major is Neuroscience.
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Santa Cruz has historically been all over the place with admissions. It used to be alphabetical. I doubt there’s any pattern to the acceptances at all this year, no matter how much we’d like to make sense of it.
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UC gpa is capped at 4.4. A 4.6 is not possible.
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My daughter’s California high school transcript calculates and shows her UC GPA as 4.6. That’s all I know. Must be wrong if it is capped at 4.4? Anyway, all I know is I need to stop worrying. It will all work out.
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There are three GPAs. Unweighted, Capped Weighted, and Fully Weighted, right? Capped weighted is the one used for eligibility, but the others are considered too I believe.
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4.6 may be fully weighted
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Does anyone know if Dean’s Scholarships have been awarded yet?
Capped at 4.4. They cap it because there are some high schools where it is not possible to get beyond a 4.4 because they lack AP classes, etc.
From these tables, I don’t think the UC’s consider uncapped GPAs.
Admissions by source school | University of California)
It would be nice to know what the universities are looking for, but unfortunately that means the system will be “gamed” and favor those with more resources. Good luck to everyone! It is stressful so hang in there. We also went through it two years ago right when COVID started and the waitlists started piling up, schools going online - lets hope this cycle is more enjoyable!
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UCLA and UCB specifically state they consider the Fully weighted UC GPA but the GPA data listed on the UCOP website is the Capped weighted UC GPA. In General, all the UC’s will consider all 3 UC GPA’s.
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My son was notified on 2/25 he was admitted into CS and received a notification last week he received a merit scholarship.
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