UC Transfer Chances

Hi, I’m a transfer student from Santa Clara University. I’m currently a California Community College student, and I applied to UB, UCLA, UCSB, and UCSD.
Major: Political Science
GPA: 3.23
ECs: I have a lot from SCU in new student orientation and Center For student Leadership work
Essays: I wrote about being sexually assaulted at SCU and being harassed by the perpetrator, and wanting to transfer so that I can get a fresh start. I also wrote about the legal process and how it inspired me to major in political science and eventually pursue a career in law.

I really want to transfer to UCSB or UCSD, and I’m wondering what my chances are?

I also thought that I was qualified for TAG, so I submitted one to UCSB. I later found out that I do not qualify, but it’s too late to withdraw my TAG. Will that effect my regular admission chances?

If you do not qualify for TAG, then you will be evaluated with all the other applicants not TAGing.

Here is a link for UC Transfer GPA’s by campus to see if you are competitive:

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/infocenter/transfers-major