@Dan2elCh5 ahhhh sorry wrong discussion 
By āUCB 2020ā do you mean UCB Class of 2020 or us?
wait an admissions officer from Berkeley literally told you that they will admit more off the waitlist this year?
@scrambro Excellent analysis. I think your assumptions, and conclusions, are very accurate.
@jaffa1 is what you told us publicly available information or do you have connections with a UC Regent?
@jaffal āThey are going to balance the drastic international decline by going to the wait list for domestic OOS students first.ā Why though, if there was an international decline, shouldnāt they fill it up w internationals?? Are they afraid that the yield will be bad in the waitlist as well? Iām international and I wanna go to Berkeley more than anything.
@phatdoggo I mean us class of 2024
@Student11223311 The Regent is a family friend.
how did you get this info?
@Dan2elCh5 my point was that they WILL go to the intl. students FIRST on the WL. Like all of them. But there are barely enough Intl. students on the WL to meet the quota. UCB would THEN go to the OOS to compensate.
So, by my (completely unproven and optimistic) analysis, you will almost certainly get an offer.
And i really hope that @kevadunn is correct. But I will say that the info given from the admissions officers is historically very conflicting. But if someone ELSE wants to call and ask the same questionā¦
@Dan2elCh5 Consulates in China are not open. Nobody knows when they will open, or when F-1 visas will be issued. Therefore, even if the Int wait list offerees send in SIRs, it is unclear what percentage will show-up in Fall. Domestic OOS are viewed as a safer bet. But donāt worryāthe int waitlist will definitely be offered. Hang in there!!
@jaffa1 have you received any information on when the first wave is planned for?
I am appealing my decision so this gives me hope. On the other hand I have also been speculating these exact assumptions. I would like to further speculate that Berkeley is playing their cards very poorly right now.
They are going to be the last school in the entire system to execute their wait list.
This means that they are giving up enrollment opportunities to other UCs that have executed their wait list and given their new admits a small window to SIR.
Once again I hope your analysis is correct because it would benefit us all.
https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/infocenter/admissions-residency-and-ethnicity
I started with the above link. then i used last years WL numbers, and some enrollment projections from @jaffa1
Given my luck, I feel like I am going to be one of those oos kids to no get in lol.
So how will this look for us in-state people? If UCB is going to rely heavily on the OOS/intāl people on the waitlist then will in state waitlisters still have good chances of getting off? @jaffa1
oops i meant to tag @kevadunn ^^
@jaffa1 Aha thanks mon that does put my mind at ease. But would it matter how many SIRs show up this fall if the first semester is going to be online anyways?
thereās a lot a talk about international and oos, but what will be the situation for in-state? sorry if someone already answered!
@scrambro That is an amazing analysis and sounds VERY logical to me. I donāt want to get my hopes up too much, but that makes me feel a lot better!
I was speaking with my Chinese friend who attends USC, and he said that way fewer Chinese students than usual are planning on coming to the US for college this upcoming year. My friend is doing fine because he got his visa under the Obama administration, so it still lasts a few more years (It is a 10-year visa)ā¦But now Iāve heard that many international students are having issues with getting visas. I feel horrible for anyone who was planning on attending college in the US this year and isnāt able to anymoreā¦Iām glad to hear that lots of international students in this group are still able to come!! Hopefully the waitlist will be utilized as much as people are saying it will be! Itās looking like the odds are going to be more in our favor this year than any past yearā¦