@fbsdreams from #143: the target of 350-400 for this round seems high to me, does it to you? Hear me out on why so:
The other thread claims that 13,000 applied in the first round and 9% were accepted, 2/3 of which were ED1. Those are supposed to be good numbers based on information that admissions provided at some accepted event.
So that’s already 780 (or so) firm commitments (13,000 * .09 * 2/3). Class size is around 1,500 so already they have filled half the class, if those numbers are accurate. Plus, they’ve accepted another 390 or so EA (13,000 * .09 * 1/3) - if last year’s yield of 60% holds, that would be another 234 spaces filled (390 * .6).
Perhaps we can argue that the 60% yield no longer applies this year now that ED is in the picture? (60% would actually have been a weighted average of those who were guaranteed to attend and those who were less so). But those EA kids are probably going to be given merit aid to entice them so. . . .while it’s hard to tell what the new EA yield would be, I’m guesstimating that it’s at least 50%, given UChicago’s popularity, the enthusiasm that the early pool tends to have, and the US News ranking. Going with that lower bound, we see that at least 195 spaces will be filled from the EA pool (390 * .5).
Adding all this up we get an expected enrollment so far of at least 975 (780 + 195). Again, class size is 1,500. that means there are reasonably - at most! - 525 spaces remaining for the ED II and RD pools. If they truly plan to fill another 300+ slots from EDII, that leaves very few remaining slots for RD. Is that a realistic conclusion?
FYI
At our local admitted students reception, the number of applicants I heard for EA/ED1 was 12085.
@hebegebe check out my post ^^. The other thread was saying 13,000 but I’ll take your number! Did they break down admissions at all?
Edit to add: the big question, assuming 12,000-13,000 applied already, is how many more new apps are coming in via EDII and RD? Last year I think 16,000 applied total (EA and RD). Could be that the same number will hold for this year, with a good number shifted forward to the early pool. Or . . . the number might be higher. 17,000? Higher? Anyone have an idea?
They only did a local breakdown, not a national one, so I can’t help with that.
Yes, I think the estimate of 350-400 students is a little high, as that would leave little room for RD applicants. In addition, Uchicago will probably have at least a 50% yield rate during the RD round for its name-brand/US News ranking alone. I would say the number of ED II acceptances is probably closer to 200 but maybe I’m wrong.
RD applications had the same deadline as ED II. Highly doubt they are making this round of decisions in a vacuum - they’ve probably read those other applications as well, and picked out who they want from that pool. Therefore, it’s quite possible that this round will be influenced by the Regular pool. Could be wrong, of course. There’s a lot going for the kids who applied ED II and some of those deferred who switched are pretty impressive as well and have now put their money behind their interest level. I wouldn’t rule some of those guys out.
@JBStillFlying I would like to think I’m one of those students. After getting deferred I was named a Regeneron STS Scholar. It’s a crapshoot now, I’m nervous for tomorrow. Good luck guys!
So scared for tomorrow…I know I’m not going to get in, but for some reason I’m still so nervous! I don’t know how I’m going to survive tomorrow.
Good luck to all those tomorrow!! Remember, you don’t need a college acceptance letter to validate your self-worth. Sometimes a college will reject you because they think that you won’t be happy at their school, so essentially, it’s for the sake of your wellbeing. It’s not just about what the decision is, but how you handle it. Will you flaunt your acceptance letter or stay humble about it? Will you cry/scream/complain about a rejection or waitlist or handle the negative news with grace? Once again, good luck!
-Regular decision applicant.
@JBStillFlying I think the EDII numbers I reported are solid. What I think is they were included in the ED/EA numbers. As I mentioned, I was originally informed that ED/EA/EDII were roughly 1200. That was 800-850 ED so figured yield 95% or more. 350-400 would yield 225+/-
That leaves roughly 500 slots for RD and I am willing to bet it’s not even that high.
What everyone is forgetting there will be many deferrals from the SCEA Ivy’s and SBMIT that will hedge their chances with a 2-3% deferral to acceptance at those schools by applying EDII. At that point, what do they have to lose ?
I do not see how the EDII and RD will not be the most selective and competitive that UChicago has ever seen. The timing of the EDII guarantees that.
Again, hats off to Nondorf and team. The yield and total applications this year will be incredible.
@fbsdreams: so if they were trying to fill 1200 slots before RD decisions - and I’m thinking they can do this with no problem - then 300 slots at most remain for RD. (Assuming that class size of 1,500 is good but it might be a bit smaller than that).
If my numbers from earlier are correct they have already filled at least 975 slots. That leaves 225 slots for EDII - at most. In reality they probably believe they have filled more than 975 - probably over 1,000. It all depends on the projected EA yield which they have probably pegged well. So ED II is probably 100-200, in reality.
What is the number of applicants for EDII - that’s the question. There are SCEA/REA deferreds from outside and also UChicago EA deferreds. How many in each category? If 1000 of each, then EDII acceptance is no more than 10% and might be as low as 5%.
For those interested, RD acceptance rate was 4% for class of 2020, as reported at last year’s local reception. I remember the EA quoted as 12%.
At local reception this year, we were told that the pool size was ~13,000 applications, with an admittance rate of ~9%. 2/3 of admits were ED1 and 1/3 were EA.
Good luck to all the ED2 applicants. Hope your dreams come true.
@hohocheer I was using those exact #'s in my earlier posts. I think my estimates, then are decent. Bad news, I’m afraid! (ex ante, of course. Ex post it’ll be great news for some!).
Last year the 4% RD rate was due not only to those applying RD as their first (and only) admission option (those deferred from restricted-action Ivy dream school, etc.) but also all those kids deferred from the UChicago EA pool. This year’s RD list will include the same two sub-groups; however, what is not known is how many of those EA’s switched to EDII. EDII might be the killer pool this year, as both SCEA-deferreds from Ivy and equivalent and UChicago EA-deferreds opportunistically commit with their pocketbooks.
If last year is any indication, they may never officially release the ED1/ED2/EA/RD rates. They will just release the total number of apps, total number of admits and total enrolled in late June.
This gives them the flexibility to admit as they see fit from the early pools without scrutiny or judgment.
@JBStillFlying It might help with your mathematical estimates to know that last year, according to the UChicago’s profile for the class of 2020 which can be found online on the school’s site, that there were 31,4111 total applicants, 2,498 were accepted, and 1591 enrolled.
My DD is a first year and was accepted from the EA round. At the admitted student reception last spring, the AO present said that they had 12,000 apply EA, and accepted 10%. I do not know how much those numbers were rounded.
Good luck to all of those awaiting decisions tomorrow.
Also keep in mind many of the recruited athletes switched from EA deferred or RD to EDII once they committed.
No matter how you slice it, it’s going to be brutal and I think where the essays and engagement will be the main differentiation.
Regardless, I sincerely wish the best to everyone here.
You have to be admitted and attend an event to get any clarity on those admit rates. The problem is two-fold: 1) if deferreds are going into one or more additional pool, you have to make sure not to over count; and 2) you have to be admitted to get to an admitted event!!! 2nd is way harder to solve than the first. LOL.