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<p>I don’t see why this would be true. Look, if you go by the US News rankings, there are at least 35 states where the state flagship is not as strong as Minnesota. If Minnesota can offer a better education at a competitive price, then it’s hard to see why it couldn’t pick off a significant fraction of the top quartile of students currently going to those schools—i.e., students whose stats currently match or exceed the medians at Minnesota. They won’t get all of them, of course, but they don’t need to. I’m sure there are plenty of well-qualified Illinoisans who aren’t going to pay for a fancy private school but would see the Twin Cities as an attractive alternative to 4 years in exile in Champaign-Urbana. It seems like half the college grads from Iowa end up in the Twin Cities anyway; they can get a decent education at a good price at Iowa or Iowa State, but if they can get an equal or better education at a comparable price in the Twin Cities, why not? Most states in the Northeast have, frankly, not very strong public universities; but the top of their classes tend to be fairly strong, generally above the medians at Minnesota. Some of those kids won’t get into a Michigan, and even if they did the high COA is going to keep most of them away. But Minnesota at a price roughly comparable to their state U is an attractive bargain, a “best value” in higher education and arguably a better deal than their own state U. So why not? Many of Minnesota’s programs, including business and engineering, are already ranked among the top 25 in the nation, public or private. At $14,600 or so in OOS tuition, these are some of the greatest bargains in all of American higher education.</p>
<p>I don’t say Minnesota will become the new Michigan overnight. But I do think it’s got a rather brilliant strategy going here. I do think this strategy will boost selectivity (and early reports indicate this year’s applications are up about 15%). I also think it will result in a stronger entering class, not a weaker one as you suggest. We’ll see; the proof is in the pudding and it’s too early to tell so far. But I think your suggestion that the OOS admit pool will be weaker than the current pool dominated by in-state and reciprocity students is profoundly counterintuitive. I also think, by the way, that as Minnesota becomes more selective, it will also become more attractive to the high end of the home-grown college applicant pool, a large fraction of whom currently end up out-of-state, either at Wisconsin or at fancy privates. Last figures I saw said only 65% of Minnesota kids stay in-state for college, and my bet is the 35% who leave are heavily skewed toward the high end. Just recapturing a larger percentage of the high-end home-growns would do wonders for Minnesota’s stats and potentially propel it to or past Wisconsin’s level.</p>