The problem with your non-collegiate sport is that it doesn’t necessarily contribute something to the school. They may have no need for a high level figure skater (or whatever), if they have no team. They’ll be impressed, but may not see it as bringing something that contributes to campus life.
However, your academic record is fantastic, and that plus the very high sports achievement just might be enough. You have a chance at any of the schools on your list. I do think that you will get into U Rochester, Case Western, and probably U Mich, Carnegie Mellon. I think you definitely have a chance at Wash U as ED2, and possibly Duke as ED1. You might get into any of the others.
Would you be happy with U Rochester? Do you like it better than your flagship state U, in-state? Is it worth another 200K to you? Because I suspect that the answer might be no, that you’d take your flagship in-state over U Rochester, and maybe over Case Western, too. Don’t you think that you’d also better put in a true academic and financial safety application to your flagship state U in-state?