We know that currently UW-Madison has 8,400 OOS undergraduates (about 1/3 of the total undergraduate population), of which 2,863 are from Minnesota, but 2,483 are from Illinois. Then it drops down to 547 from California, 491 from NY, 188 from Maryland…
Clearly OOS Illinois students (mostly from Cook county) are very important to UW-Madison.
Which ties back in to why UW-Madison is about to start increasing merit aid to OOS students.
The high stat kids (ACT 34-36) are likely looking at schools like Michigan for Engineering. Looking at Ann Arbor’s Fall 2015 enrollment, the top three OOS states are California (2,383), NY (2,143) and Illinois (2,056, of which 332 are in the COE). Then you’ll have high stat kids going to schools based on cost, such as Alabama (2.2% of UA’s total enrollment is from Illinois). Another example would be high stat kids going to schools like Georgia Tech or Ohio State due to scholarships offers. Private schools like Vanderbilt and Duke look like a solid deal, compared to UIUC’s cost. Really high state requirements for entrance, coupled with the highest in-state tuition rate in the country, will create competition for these students.
Fun Fact: of the current 10,600+ students in the COE, close to 6,100 are non-Illinois residents (and almost 4,000 are international students).