What are my chances at UNC, UMichigan, UVA, UChicago, and Northwestern all out of state?

Absolutely, your chances will be enhanced IF you can a track coach interested in you, whether it’s a scholarship or PWO. Look up EC tiers. There are four tiers AFAIK. Recruited athlete is a tier 1 EC, IIRC.

My own 2021 kid will be a 4-year varsity starter and will be a captain next year. Lots of volunteer hours, PT job, etc. But unfortunately, these are just average EC’s.