What are my chances at Yale?

I’m applying as a double major (music and Ethics, Politics, and Economics), and I think my main ticket in is my music. I’ve played at Carnegie Hall, Disney Hall, and the Boston Symphony Hall; I’ve also toured in countries around the world, like Germany, Israel, Russia, Finland, Poland, Estonia, and Austria. I know my academics/non-musical extracurriculars are GOOD but not GREAT, but I wanted to get other peoples’ opinions! The Yale music program is pretty solid, but they’re in need of good pianists, so that’ll likely up my chances.

Objective:
GPA: 3.95 (UW), 4.22 (W)
Class rank: Not available, but I’d guess in the top 5%
ACT: 34 (same for superscore)
SAT: N/A
Subject Tests: Results haven’t come out yet
Note: My school doesn’t have AP classes, but our equivalent is called a “CAS” class
Senior course load: CAS Physics, CAS Latin, CAS History, Ethics (Honors), English Seminar (Honors), an independent study
Major Awards: Magna cum laude on the National Latin Exam (twice), three gold medals in the Scholastic National Art and Writing Competition, published articles in several newspapers and journals in California, Promise award in the Spotlight music competition, several other music-related awards (some listed above)

Subjective:
Extracurriculars:
Model United Nations (I’m the admissions director, how ironic)
Junior Chamber Music (I’m one of their Debut Artists)
Richard D. Colburn Merit Scholar
Many music activities/commitments/awards
Ethics of Science club (president/founder)
School Literary Magazine (editor-in-chief)

Community Service:
Tutored underprivileged elementary schoolers
Performed at senior citizen homes around LA
Organized/participated in benefit concerts

Summer activities:
Calculus (online)
Johns Hopkins Center for Talented Youth
Music@Menlo
Warsaw Piano Institute
Other classical music festivals

Essays: Currently working on mine with my college counselor; I’m writing my personal statement about my independent study (it’ll highlight how I’m a self-starter, motivated, creative, and driven when it comes to what I’m passionate about)
Teacher Recs: My history teacher is writing one; he’s been teaching for 30+ years, and says I’m the best student he’s ever had. My bio teacher is writing the other; she’s the faculty advisor for the club I founded, and we have a very personal relationship. Both will be excellent (I hope).
Counsellor rec: She and I also know each other pretty well. It’ll be more than solid.

Demographics:
Gender: Female
Ethnicity: White/Asian
Income: High (won’t be applying for financial aid)

Your application is very impressive, objectively (IMO, beyond amazing. I’m shocked that some kids manage to accomplish so much before the end of high school) . Since you noted that Yale is in need of pianists, that will help your case even more. While Ivies are a “reach” for everyone, with your grades and dedication to your music, and the strong teacher recommendations, I think you have an extremely good shot.

Would you be willing to chance me back? http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1905447-chance-me-for-brown-cmc-swarthmore-other-schools-please.html#latest