What are my chances for Duke ED?

I’m applying for early decision to Duke and it’s really the only school I want to go to, but I’m really stressed and want to get in so bad… do you guys think I have a chance???

School: Public FL
UWGPA: 3.9/4.0
WGPA: 4.58
Class rank: 12/750

SAT: 1460/1600
ACT: 31

Ethnicity: White Female
Income Bracket: Middle

Intended Major: Biology

Middle school High School classes:
-Spanish 1 (B)
-Spanish 2 (A)
-Algebra 1 honors (A)

Freshman year course load:
-Spanish 3 Honors (A)
-Geometry Honors (A)
-World history honors (A)
-English I honors (A)
-Biology Honors (A)
-AP Human geography (A)

Sophomore year course load:
-Ap euro (B)
-AP Environmental (A)
-AP Art history (A)
-Ap U.S. government (A)
-Chemistry honors (A)
-Algebra 2 honors (A)
-English 2 Honors (B)
-Latin I (A)

Junior year course load:
-Latin II (A)
-AP english Language & Comp. (A)
-AP U.S. History (A)
-AP Chemistry (A)
-Dual enrolled @ college: Anatomy & Physiology I (with lab) (A)
-Dual enrolled @ college: Anatomy & Physiology II (with lab) (A)
-Dual enrolled @ college: College algebra (A)
-Dual enrolled @ college: Precalculus trigonometry (A)
-Dual enrolled @ college: Healthy living (A)
-Dual enrolled @ college: Psychology (A)
-Dual enrolled @ college: college success (A)

Senior year course load:
-AP stat
-AP english literature
-Dual enrolled @ college: Precalculus algebra
-Dual enrolled @ college: Chemistry I (with lab)
-Dual enrolled @ college: Argument and persuasion
-Dual enrolled @ college: American History
-Dual enrolled @ college: Chemistry II (with lab)
-Dual enrolled @ college: Biology for science majors I (with lab)
-Dual enrolled @ college: Calculus with analytic geometry I
-Dual enrolled @ college: Introduction to humanities

EC’s:
-100+ hours volunteering at middle school (tutor math) (4 years)
-tutored AP chemistry (sophomore & junior year)
-tutored biology (freshman and sophomore year)
-tutored AP US history (junior and senior year)
-National Honors Society (for 3 years)
-work at a hair salon as a receptionist (for 2 years)
-Spanish Honors Society (9th grade)
-Latin JCL (sophomore and junior years)
-Chemistry club (sophomore and senior years)
-Key club (senior year)

Honors/Awards:
-Principals list 3 years in a row

Recommendation letters:
-AP lang teacher, AP chemistry teacher, Anatomy & Physiology college professor (probably all 8/10)
-one from the teacher I volunteer for at the middle school ( i know him very very well, he is like one of my mentors so it’ll be 10/10)
-guidance counselor (know her very well i always go to her for dual enrollment stuff so i hope her letter is good)

Interview:
I do want to interview

Essay:
-For my common app essay I’m writing about being a twin and how it shaped who i am today because i had to find my individuality
-for why duke I was going to talk about research opportunity and study abroad opportunity and the medical center since I want to be pre-med
-I was planning on doing the optional essay but don’t know what I’ll talk about yet

Assuming you are a junior, the best chance you have right now is to raise your ACT or your SAT. Try and take the August test and get a 1500+ SAT or a 33+ on the ACT. Make sure to spend a lot of time on your essays.

Even with your great GPA and a boost in test scores, your chances are still really low (although they are really low for everyone). I knew two people, twins, who had 4.0 UW GPA w/ majority AP classes, stellar EC’s, and 1600 SATs. They applied to Duke Engineering, and neither got in. Personally, avoid making any one school a dream school. If you get rejected, it hurts all the more.

Since I dual enroll, if i didn’t get into Duke I was just going to stay at FSU because I already have a lot of credits there. Thanks for the feedback!!!

I think the advice you received was excellent - everything looks pretty good for you, with the exception of your test scores. Those need to come up if you are to stand a shot, even ED. Your course rigor looks really good, and you have a lot of EC involvement, albeit rather typical and far from unusual activities. Essays will be your best friend if you’re a good writer - get started now and revise revise revise! Remember, writing is rewriting.

Don’t get attached to one school - your why Duke essay topic suggests to me that you like it for its pre-med opportunities in conjunction with a top medical center and school, as well as opportunities to go abroad and see the world. I assume you also like Duke’s architecture and culture. If you do raise those test scores, I think you should consider other schools for RD that aren’t just FSU (although FSU with so much credit is an excellent idea and a huge money saver). Vanderbilt, UVa, Rice, Emory, WashU, Northwestern, and UMich all come to mind as potentially good fits given what you’ve said above, though none of them are easy to get into (UVa, UMich and Emory would be good bets for you, but the rest are high reaches for everyone). Just something to consider so that if you do get rejected ED to Duke, which is always the most likely scenario, you have other places to have a shot at that aren’t just a state school.

I think you have a great shot. Grades are excellent with a mighty rigorous course load (14 college classes! wow). Just write a good essay. The focus on scores is not everything. Duke likes well rounded kids too.

Your scores are in Duke’s range, and you have good grades, I think you have as good a shot as anyone else.

I’d agree that you have a good shot too. That course rigor looks really impressive to me. I highly doubt they see many applicants with a transcript like that. I don’t think your test scores will be your downfall - they aren’t spectacular, but put you in the competition so I’d think the other things would weigh more heavily.

You have a good shot. Your course rigor is notable and I think you’ll impress the Adcom much more than a kid with 1600s but a much less rigorous course load.