What are my chances of getting into UC Davis with 1 W on my transcript?

<p>Hello everyone,
I am entering my second year at cc this fall and I want to major in Bio (mostly b/c I've been really struggling w/ what I want the past year and I thought why not just start somewhere and I decided to choose Biology..lol)
I plan on dropping a class--Bio 1A (I know, ironic, seeing that I want to major in bio & I'm currently at a D)--I am taking this summer and receive my first W due to personal reasons. I've earned all A's in almost all my classes--eng 1A, psych 1A, math 2 (pre cal w/ analytical geometry), chem 1A, calc 3A, sociology 1--so far, except for this one stupid B in English 5 (instructor was crazy).
Anyways, my current GPA is basically a 3.9. I planned on applying for the TAG application this fall; however, if I drop this Bio course, I will be lacking two units and will not be eligible to apply for TAG. I do plan on retaking Bio this fall. By the end of spring 2015, I plan to only miss 1 pre-req course, that is, physics 3b--assuming that I pass all my other classes in the fall and in the spring of 2015.
I haven't done much extracurricular activities the past year since I've been so focused on studying and whatnot, but I was very active in high school and volunteered a lot. What I'm trying to say is, I will not have much to write on my personal statement regarding any experience I've had with my intended major (which is the topic for the transfer applicant personal statement). I don't think that my personal statement will be convincing enough to disregard the W or the potential D if I choose to stay in the Bio course. (Btw, do I get credits for getting a D?)
I could get recommendation letters from my chem instructor, math instructor, or counselor if that'll help with my admission..
Sorry, this is a lot to take in, but I just wanted to put out as much as I can to help you help me...=] I just want to know, do I have a chance at getting into UC DAVIS?
Please and thank you for your time</p>