What are my chances? (Please)

Thank you in advance for anyone who does this

I’m a white male (unsure how much of an effect that has for this school), regular admission
Senior course load: Honors Physics, Honors Calculus, AP English (Brit Lit), Honors Intro to Human Rights, Music Tech (a tech is required to graduate), Band/Chorus, and one block tutoring in the writing center at my high school
My weighted GPA is at least a 3.8 (was that last year, should be higher now), unsure what exactly my unweighted is, definitely still in the upper-3 area
EC’s: President of music honor society, co-president of Latin honor society, member of national honor society, section leader in band (this year and year before), section leader in after-school a Capella group, secretary of chorus last year, secretary of gay-straight alliance, writing tutor, have taken piano lessons for 8+ years
Awards: last year I got the outstanding achievement in Latin 5 (AP) and English III (AP) award, this year I’ve gotten the CAPPS award (superintendent, in this case headmaster, picks one student from each sending town who “represents our school” - whatever that means - to receive the award), outstanding achievement in band freshman year
(is it misguided of me to think that playing the tuba, a rather rare instrument, and saying that I plan on playing in an instrumental ensemble in college will help my chances?)
SATs: 2020 (680 CR, 650 Math, 690 Writing w/ 10 essay). Took Literature and Math I subject tests, but they weren’t fantastic (640 and 680 respectively), so I’m unsure if I’ll include that
My school doesn’t report rank
I’ve been told that my essay is very strong (I am awful at judging my own writing) and I have, I think, very good letters of recommendation.
Once I apply, I’m going to contact someone to organize an alumni interview in my area (getting to Ohio isn’t very realistic for me at the moment)
Kenyon is my top choice, I think I kind of have a 50-50 chance: does that seem accurate?
(sorry this is so long)