What are my chances? Stanford-UCB-UCLA-Ivy Leagues

Hey guys!

Thanks for taking the time to read this post. I just wanted to ask what would you guys say are my chances to getting in top tier schools such as Ivies as well as UCB and UCLA with these stats. I’m a junior, homeschooled, Asian, with low income (due to parent unemployment but decent net worth).

Math 2: 800
Physics: 800
SAT 1: 1570

GPA: 3.8 unweighted, 4.5 weighted, not going to matter much for homeschoolers but I took Calc 1A and 1B at Foothill and got an A and a B, which isn’t so hot.

5s on AP Micro, AP Physics 1; 4s on AP Lang and AP Macro. Won’t receive results back yet but most likely: 5s on AP Physics C E&M & Mechanics, 4 or 5 on AP Lit, 4 or 5 on AP Calc, 4 or 5 on AP CS.

Qualified USAPHO, active in advanced optical Physics projects, science fairs, and science conferences. Did decent in some math competitions as well (9th place California State Mathleague, 9th place Kangaroo Math Nationals)

Mediocre at writing essays, (still a junior so haven’t started yet)
Will be tough to find good recommendations from teachers since I’m homeschooled

ECs: Started a club and several science camps for kids, training staff and teachers. Organized a science fair as well
Coached basketball in my own class for 2 years, tutored for 2 years, worked part time at chikfila for a year
Fundraised $1000+ by taking kids fishing and then using the money to go on a service trip to Mexico building houses for the homeless. Went to Mexico 3 times

So that’s it. Several slightly impressive things, several not so. What do you guys think? Will the strong SATs be enough to carry me to Berkeley? Will the strong math/physics competitions be enough to carry me to Ivies?

Thanks in advance,
~ACEPLUS

For the UCs, you need to compute your UC GPA. UCs tend to weigh GPA more heavily than test scores.

http://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/campuses/files/freshman-profiles/freshman_profile_berkeley.pdf
http://www.admission.ucla.edu/Prospect/Adm_fr/Frosh_Prof17.htm
http://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/campuses/files/freshman-profiles/freshman_profile_la.pdf

You can look up the stats for each school on their websites. It seems likely that your stats will be in the ballpark for Stanford and Ivies (check stats for GPA), but that’s just step 1. The rest, the qualitative aspects, are difficult to judge and impossible to guess how they will be presented. Most other applicants will also have stats in the ballpark. Always keep in mind the very low acceptance rates for all the schools you mention, and have a good number of matches and safeties on your list.