What are my chances to UMASS Amherst (In-State)

My gpa is a 2.9 (4.0) and I have an SAT of 1540.
I play for the boston youth symphony orchestra and have been for the past four years. I am a varsity Javelin thrower. I also coach youth Basketball and Flag football.

As UMASS is my top, I would like insight into how I stack up.

Your SAT is okay for them. I like your activities.

Your GPA is very low for them. Is that your weighted GPA? What is your weighted GPA?