I’m currently a semifinalist, but I just realized one of my scholarship offers banked on me being a finalist. I am now freaking out.
My essay was okay.
I got a 2370 on the old SAT.
GPA is 3.99 (unweighted), 4.58 (weighted).
I took mostly AP classes and am now double-enrolled at the local university.
@lovexmango Your chances are very good. There are ~16K semi-finalists and ~15K will become finalists.
You need a confirming SAT index. National Merit said the confirming SAT score index will be 209 or lower. No need for you to do the math on your SAT score as it clearly exceeds 209 so your SAT score confirms your PSAT score. I assume you sent National Merit your SAT score directly from college board as required.
As for the essay, my son’s GC said that the essay doesn’t need to be spectacular it just needs to demonstrate that you can write at the level of a college freshman. Proper grammer, sentence structure, etc.
Next, your college/ guidance counselor or principal had to submit the school portion of the app. Assuming you have not had any issues (suspensions etc) that would prevent your school from supporting your application you are okay.
There is no advertised GPA requirement but it has been said that one or two Cs would be the zone of uncertainty and a grade below that would be a deal breaker. With your GPA, seems that is not an issue. 
I think you are in good shape. Some kids won’t be named finalists because they opt not to sit for the SAT and confirm the score, some are not applying to schools that offer any NM $$ so they don’t see the point in submitting the app. Then there are some that might not have had some less than stellar grades. Good luck and hope this helped you to stop freaking out.
Ah that’s good. I figured some people wouldn’t complete the application/forget to take the SAT, which I hoped would account for 1000 people. Thanks for the info!!!
I would say you have a 99% chance. Congrats!
@suzyQ7 That 1% is frightening…
The 1% often have some Cs on their transcripts. You should be fine.