I have been reading the forums and all the schools discussed seem to be the top ones. How about the second and third tier programs in terms of acceptance?
Mathematically the odds are better at some schools than others- but there is no such thing as an audition “safety” school. In terms of discussion- BFA program rankings are incredibly subjective - which you may have gathered if you have been reading threads about “top” programs. One person’s “dream” school could be another person’s “maybe” and vice versa That makes it difficult to create agreement on something like a tier.
Reading the threads, the impression I get is that the somewhat easier ones to get into are the ones that primarily attract regional candidates, rather than national ones. What I mean is, big name schools like Carnegie Mellon get applicants from all over the U.S., whereas smaller regional colleges would mainly get local people applying. The training at those schools can still be excellent, but the applicant pool is smaller, so the chances of getting in are higher.
Also, schools that have large freshmen MT classes (50 to 100 students) may be easier to get into than schools that have tiny classes (again, CMU accepts only 12 students for its freshmen MT program). Again, it’s just about numbers and percentages, NOT quality of training.
What schools accept 100 students? Most seem to take less than 15 or 20…
Something also to consider is the total number of offers made. Some schools, esp. the pricier ones or ones with no merit/talent aid, will ultimately need to make nearly two offers per available spot to fill their class. Others rarely need to make more than two or three additional offers to make their “yield.” (These numbers are sometimes difficult to know). Others may challenge me on this, but I would say that with a couple of exceptions (CMU, Michigan, CCM for example) the higher the net tuition and number of slots, the more offers needed to fill the class. I was a bit surprised to learn that Indiana reported making 33 offers last year to fill 12 slots! (This from the BFA coordinator at a parent talk). In my personal opinion, Indiana is a Top Notch program. But, Indiana does not offer any significant aid to OOS students, and by their own admission often loses out to schools that offer greater aid.
So in a round about way, I am saying that if you have an extra 20-40K to spend per year on tuition, you may increase your odds simply because there are talented students who will apply to those schools, because they are good schools, but may not ultimately accept those offers, and will opt for a less pricey," just as good if not better" option when given a choice.
So while BOCO for example draws a national crowd of applicants, my bet is statistically it is perhaps easier to secure an offer there than it is to say regional school “x” that takes 15 students. However, the BOCO pool, overall, may be of higher caliber. Its really, really, difficult to quantify all the variables.
Well that certainly made me wanna cancel our Indiana Audition.
Don’t. Its a great school.
Lauramomatty: okay, 100 was an exaggeration for sure!
But just for example: Rider in New Jersey has a freshman MT class of 49 this year, according to this thread: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/musical-theater-major/1646310-2014-freshman-class-size-p5.html
Rider is in New Jersey, and it’s newer than most of the other programs, so I’m thinking that might mean it may not get AS many applicants as the “big name” schools, while accepting more (freshman class of 49 vs. CMU’s 12). So that might possibly increase the odds of getting accepted. Still a very selective program, obviously! But maybe not as INSANELY long odds.
I think that any school that goes to Unifieds will get a lot of applicants. That is why they are there. I would look for schools that only audition on their campus.
I “heard” there was some sort of snafu last year with the waitlist or something, not really sure what happened, but I did hear from them “that” – whatever “that” was, will not happening this year, and Rider will not be accepting those kinds of numbers this year. I do not know what numbers they will be accepting.
Let me just say something about CMU, Michigan and to a slightly lesser extent, CCM. They are lottery schools plain and simple. The odds are ridicoulously long. Without Any sort of judgment or opinion about whether these are “the best” schools, yada yada, they truly are in a class by themselves when it comes to odds. They are the Harvard, Yale and Princeton of MT in terms of difficulty of admittance.
I think a lot of schools had more acceptances than they planned on last year, though whether that will result in fewer acceptances for 2015 is just a guess.
@LoveMyMTGirl I both agree and disagree. On the one hand, on-campus only auditions do reduce the sheer numbers. But most of those schools also have prescreens to pass: Baldwin Wallace, Elon, Indiana, FSU. I don’t think anyone would say any of these schools are easy admits! Schools like CCM and CMU go to ALL the Unifieds and have auditions on campus, they audition like 700-1000 applicants because they are willing to see everyone. But that doesnt mean even half of them would pass a BW or Elon prescreen. So its not just about the numbers. Its about the quality of the applicant pool.
100 offers is absolutely NOT an exaggeration for some schools. BoCo makes offers to something like 150 kids to fill 50-60 slots (there is a thread on numbers from 2 years ago…look for it and that may help). NYU-Tisch takes way more than 100 for all of its studios…NSB alone has 50-60 kids, right? And Rider puts out offers to well over 100 kids to fill its approximately 60 slots. Those are the only 3 schools I can think of that put out offers to over 100 kids each year. HOWEVER, this is NOT to imply that these programs are easier to get into. BoCo, for example, may admit about 18% of people who apply, as opposed to Ithaca’s 3%, for example, but we do not know whether the calibre of those kids is…it is impossible to quantify what school is “easier” to get into than others. The only thing that is sure bet is a non-audition safety, if your grades are good enough to get in.
@tramsmom I completely agree. The thread was going in the direction of numbers, so I made that observation. In no way was I implying that they were easy admits. Perhaps one can look at schools that audition on campus only without a prescreen. 
I don’t think a larger class implies easier odds. One must examine acceptance RATES. You need to know how many apply and how many offers go out to determine acceptance rate. If a school has a larger program but also sees a lot more applicants, than it is not necessarily an “easier admit.”
This doesn’t even get into many other factors (besides acceptance rates) such as strength of applicant pool, etc.
Maybe the OP should be looking at strength of applicant pool to increase the odds.
Worry less about where you’ll get in. The bottom line is, that’s unknowable and outcomes can be quite inconsistent (admitted to a super highly competitive school but redirected by one less coveted). Don’t waste time on that jigsaw puzzle. There are pieces missing that you will never have and without them the picture is meaningless. Shift your focus to which schools appeal to you. Be sure that you have at least one (preferably more) non-audition safety options.
That said, a larger class is still a significant factor for the student to consider. BoCo got cut from the kid’s list. Large class in a small school turned him off, even with the possibility of consortium opportunities. The applicant’s preferences are the most important factor.
Thank you all for your replies so far. We are new to the performing arts college search and I was bit more than overwhelmed when we started looking at all this. 
If NYU auditions 1500 and they make 150 offers, (really we are talking about offer rates, not attendance rates) an applicant has a 10% chance of getting an offer. That’s actually pretty high compared to many schools. If the applicant has good stats, and lets say typical talent, odds increase even more. Very high stats, like merit scholar stuff, but with decent talent, and I’d say odds could be even for you at NYU. Now take that same student and have them audition at Otterbein, Baldwin Wallace, or Texas State, or one of the other schools that doesnt really give a flip about grades, is affordable, and has a small entering class. You get a totally different odds picture for that same student at those schools because (among other reasons, class size, popularity due to cost) the academic achievment edge is removed.
Well now, I can’t read emoticons so I don’t know if you’re joking. I’d rather encourage this space to be one that neutralizes worry (which serves no purpose) by providing a venue for mutual support. I’ve appreciated the information sharing on many topics and I’ve been happy to share my own knowledge when appropriate. (Maybe an emoticon goes here?)