I think it is relatively easy to pinpoint the really tough admits (Michigan, CMU). Much more difficult and controversial to say which ones lie at the bottom or easy end of the spectrum.
tramsmom, I agree with your post #40 to some degree. Actually, I think it is harder to predict the ones in the middle of the spectrum.
And as we all have observed, even if some schools are considered more artistically selective than others, the admit rates are so low at all these schools that kids get into some āharderā admits and rejected at some schools that appear to be āeasierā (but not easy) admits all the time. Still, I think one can estimate a VERY rough sense of artistic odds at some schools being more competitive for MT than some others (those are the farther end of the spectrum on both ends, more so than those in between).
This whole process of college (before, during, and I suspect after) is so very personal - and it is easy to get defensive or take offense, about choices. Speaking only for myself, when I read comments that imply (or flat out say) that the place my kid is going to school is āless selectiveā than other programs - the implication that I take from the comment is that they are saying the school is somehow āless worthyā. Itās not a big jump from there to the idea that the kid attending the school is also ālessā talented. I am CERTAIN that is NOT what any poster means to say- I am just describing my OWN personal train of thought when I read that type of post. Itās me being oversensitive, but to use an analogy that I have used before- the BFA process felt like fighting a war. And choosing between the schools where D was accepted was nearly as stressful. D loves her school (and yes, she is at NYU) but to be 100% honest- I still look back and worry - we have a running joke in our house about Syracuse (which was the #2 finisher) and itās funny- butā¦
So to tie my point back to the OP a bit- there are people on this board representing a wide variety of schools - so itās almost impossible to make a list calling schools āless selectiveā that wouldnāt offend someone reading it. (if they have a kid at that school). Another route is to go with a non-audition school which has a reputation for strong theater. Muhlenberg in PA is an excellent LAC known for strong theater (one of the most popular majors on campus) which offers an audition process for scholarship- but does not require one for admission.
I agree that a very good way to round out the balance/odds on oneās list is to include non-audition MT schools (one of which should also be an academic safety). I also suggest to my students to have a couple of BA by audition schools which are still quite difficult to get into (selective!), but typically have higher admit rates (not necessarily āhighā) than most BFA in MT programs.
There are no easier auditioned programs to get intoā¦they are ALL a crapshoot and you should not expect to get into any one of them. Cast a wide net and cross your fingersā¦there are people who get into NYU but not Point Park or UArtsā¦there is no rhyme or reason. (and I only picked those two examples because I was told last year that those were easier admits) Substitute whichever schools you feel are āeasierā admits.
OP SBC is long gone by now. That said @sbcā #16 by Vocal is a very good one and I couldnāt agree more.
I am finding that word like āoddsā and āchancesā donāt really apply here. As in anything, you can only control your end of thingsā¦ training, song/mono choices, preparedness, knowing your type, researching āfitā, etc ā¦ the other end is a total mystery, completely subjective, impossible to define and out of your hands.
MTMajorCook, what is SBC?
EDIT: Oops, nevermind. I see that is the name of the OP. I thought it was some conservatory I couldnāt place!
Yay Iāve graduated since I went through this 4 years ago! Happy to be put out to pasture but before I go, Iām curious about what you @evilqueen (or anyone else who wants to chime in) think has changed so much. More schools have prescreens now than before though we had some 4 years ago. Prescreens are more common now so that would be one thing. What else?
I thought of another. In the last 4 years, I can think of at least one school that used to be non-audition has now become an audition in program. So thatās another though it really wouldnāt set things on a whole new orbit I suppose.
I think there are some changes, but overall, a lot has not changed. Prescreens are a rather new phenomena. SATs changed after my kids took it and are about to change again. Some programs added or took away dance as part of the audition. NYU added ED2. Some new programs have emerged. But so much of this process has stayed rather constant. Those who keep up with college admissions and have read these forums over the years (and stayed past their own kidsā admissions year) have a lot to offer those just coming up. The basics are still the basics. Numbers fluctuate and so on, but overall, so much of it is the same. I have advised students in this process for 11 years and the changes are minor in scope and some are particular to specific programs. Iād say prescreens are the biggest change in recent years. Really, those who have been around the block have so much to offer those just coming up and have had kids not only go through the process, but go all through the program, and may also be keeping up on current things, as evidence of continued participation and helping others over the years.
To be clear, Iām not asking from a defensive posture. I would completely agree for instance that @toowonderful has better information about what the audition process looks like at NYU than I do right now because their family went through it only last year. That info absolutely has a shelf-life. But I am really just curious about what people think is so different now. I donāt know the answer because Iām not applying now. Of course the flip side of that is if you didnāt apply years ago, you donāt know what that looked like either.
So Iāll help with the history part. 4+ years ago there were auditions. There were more applicants than the number of seats. There were monologues, songs and dancing. There were essays to be written, deadlines to be met, travel and scheduling nightmares to be ironed out. Outfits to be decided upon. Resumes and headshots to be accidentally left in a hotel room. Donāt know if dropboxes existed then (that is a good idea btw.) Portable players were much bigger and clunkier to fit into your suitcase. We used DVDs instead of those cute digital devices. I bet some people remember using tapes!
I donāt know if CC traffic is a surrogate overall for school popularity. Certainly some of the schools that are talked about a lot now were barely mentioned in the forum 4+ years ago. Is that just a couple of enthusiastic posters or have these programs really become hotter than ever? The reverse has happened as well. Some schools used to have a ton of chatter now few people talk about. Does that mean they are less popular? While we are at it, can one assume that greater popularity = greater competitiveness?
I probably shouldnāt even be asking this here as it really is only loosely related to the OP.
Not fast enough with the edit button. I lied. We did the audition/apply thing 3 years ago, not 4. Not really lying just remembering wrong. Getting old does that to you. 
You were right @halflokum if she is a junior it would be 4 years agoā¦right?
@bisouu, thatās the exact math that threw me off in the first place but no, itās 3. Audition and application season started early fall of 2011 and continued into winter of 2012 which is the year she started school. Winter of 2012 was 3 years ago.
That means the history I reported above isnāt relevant for this discussion. I donāt actually know what auditions/applications looked like 4+ years ago because we werenāt in that bucket. My guess is I came close though.
Just have to sayā¦The less difficult musical theater/theater programs to get into are the ones your child ends up getting into. I really donāt mean to be snarky. They need to be prepared and show up. Past, present, future.
What you have to say is never irrelevant @halflokum
Some differences I see over the last decade are that number of applicants for each school is increasing exponentially. According to the schools, they continue to see a huge increase each year (which is why so many are now resorting to prescreens). Also, the number of schools the average applicant applies to seems to have increased. It is not unusual for a student to audition at 12-15 (or more) schools these days. A decade ago I think less than 10 was more the average.
A decade ago kids very involved in the arts attended Stagedoor or French Woods in the summers. Now many attend programs summer programs at colleges, or at programs with college faculty (MPulse, BW, NYU, Cherubs, OCU, ArtsBridge, TPAP). In addition, more and more kids are now using audition coaches and this, as SoozieVT has said many times was very rare when her daughter auditioned. In fact, Iām not sure Mary Anna Dennard, MTCA or Dave Clemmons (3 of the big ones discussed on CC) even did college audition coaching back then.
Then there is also the cost of attendance. While places like NYU, CMU. And Michigan have always been expensive, I know they were less expensive ten years ago, and ten years ago many parents were in a slightly better position financially and were able to afford such schools. Because of current economics, schools like Texas State, otterbein, and BW (with scholarships and lower cost of attendance) have risen and created competition for some of the big ones. Many parents are unwilling to sheāll out a quarter million on a college education, so these schools are attracting some top talent in their applicant pools.
So yes, while it is wonderful having knowledge from past experiences, some things have changed and are quite different.
I was told by some āold timersā that Ellen Lettrich, head of MTCA and Mary Anna Dennard, head of collegeauditioncoach, used to coach together. That was around 2005,2006, but Dennard was coaching solo before that in 2000, and that Dave Clemmons was a Broadway casting director and producer back then. Interesting history since we are recollecting.
I do think there are more kids auditioning for BFA programs than in years past (every single school presentation last year included them telling us that more kids were auditioning). But does it follow that the competitive pool is actually larger? Are there more talented kids than there were a decade ago? Or have programs like Glee (to bring up the topic of an old thread) and expansion of arts programs changed then game? It seems there are far more PA schools than when I watched āfameā and dreamed of NYC, and more community/youth/summer theater venues. Not to mention more BFA programs as a whole. I applied to BFA schools more moons ago than I care to recall - and would have been hard pressed to find then 10+ schools that seem common today.Now I could think of more than a dozen within a couple hour drive from my house. (And I live in the metro area of the place where I grew up). So I agree there are more challenges, but arenāt there also more chances? I applied to CCM and CMU - and they only took a dozen students or so back then tooā¦