<p>We should include a disclaimer when we give an opinion on a student's chances at a particular college. If we look at the numbers of say an Ivy League school and compare with the info we have on a particular student, and that student is really outstanding, we should say that student has a one in two chance for admission as opposed to the average applicant's one in ten. We really can't be more accurate than that. With schools outside the upper fifty universities and colleges we might speak with more confidence, but probably no one is asking for our opinions.</p>
<p>One in two? Are you serious? The ivies have so many qualified applicants that this statement is just silly. As we have no idea about their recs and essays, all we can really say to the very high stat applicants is that they are realistic candidates. The exception to this would be well connected legacies, athletes and URMs.</p>
<p>The one in two refers to the applicant that is 99th percentile. The point I was trying to make is, I believe, the same as yours. We can only cast them as realistic or unrealistic, because our favorite picks are still only one in two.</p>
<p>Someone who has 99% stats at very top schools are NOT 1 in 2. Not even close!</p>
<p>Nope - there are so many applicants that have 2400s and are valedictorians at their respective high schools who top schools reject. So many times applicants have 2 of the three needed items (the three being great ECs, scores, and transcript). It's simply hard to maintain an awesome GPA while being really invovled. The reverse is true.</p>
<p>There aren't THAT many people with 2400 to begin with...there's only a couple hundred to a thousand 2400ers out there...and most of them WILL be accepted to the top schools.</p>
<p>However, plenty of valedictorians get rejected...that's true.</p>
<p>I don't know what "we" you are referring to when it comes to laying odds. I don't give odds myself because I know that I'm not an admissions officer nor am I privvy to what any posters' application -- including their recommendations and essays -- really look like.</p>
<p>I think that people who base their decisions about where to apply on responses by uninformed anonymous strangers probably are lazy students whose odds of admission are less than those of other students with similar qualifications who are looking here for their chances. </p>
<p>There are plenty of intelligent ways of estimating whether it's worth it to apply to a particular college, but using anonymous message boards is just as smart as reading tea leaves.</p>
<p>Anyway, I think that most people post here to hear the golden words, "You're definitely going to be admitted," no matter how much of a longshot their GC and common sense tells them that they are.</p>
<p>You're probably right. However, there really is an extremely basic formula for maximizing your chances of getting in:</p>
<ol>
<li>Fantastic GPA (after taking toughest courseload available)</li>
<li>Great scores (so 2100, 33-34+)</li>
<li>Amazing ECs (something that will make you stand out of a crowd that shares high scores and awesome GPAs)</li>
</ol>
<p>You DON'T have to be an admissions officer to comment what will/will not stand out - all you have to do is look at your high school - who's good at what, what activities no one does in your school, and so on. We can look at Northstarmom's post about fantastic ECs which lays it out quite nicely. We are qualified to say whether or not you'll be competitive. </p>
<p>Simply saying we're not adcoms is an oversimplification.</p>
<p>But you are indeed right, Northstarmom, not all comments should be taken seriously - not everyone has done their reading and research. Ultimately, the chances forum seems to be controlled by newbies. I think I comprehend my chances pretty well - I've got great ECs, a good GPA, great relationships w/ teachers, but my test scores could improve - the test scores reduce my chances. I know this b/c of the amount of research I've done. </p>
<p>I have a friend however, that could really benefit from reading around on the chances forum and observing what top applicants have who apply to places like Harvard. He thinks he'll get in no problem - his quals: great GPA, great scores, mediocre/below average ECs. If he saw what other kids have, that would provide motivation for him to work harder and get those good ECs (he has great access to it, just d/n pursue it). </p>
<p>Although the stats in CCs chances forum can be a little daunting, it's also important to note that they can also be a great reality check, and can be fantastic motivation to work harder. It's just like primitive survival: you don't feel hungry, but you see everyone else is eating much more than you do, so you must feel hungry as well (bad analogy but w/e). I do think, however, that CC should only allow junior members+ to post in the chances forum - 30 posts is really not that much, but enough to pseudo-ensure people would use it effectively and not as in: "I'm lazy so I'll ask people what schools I should apply to."</p>
<p>IMO the reality check is in the CC college-specific forums where you can find the stats and ECs for students who were rejected and accepted by various colleges. I don't think that chances provides much of a reality check because virtually everyone who posts is a student who has no clue about what the colleges are looking for. I see people given false hope as well as having their hopes dashed for no good reasons.</p>
<p>I think that anyone should be allowed to post here. Folks truly looking for chances by asking anonymous, uninformed strangers deserve what they get. People who have common sense and are willing to do some research would use other means of figuring out their chances such as checking their stats against the admission stats available on colleges' web sites and in college guides like the ones put out by US News. They'd also check CC forums for the colleges that they're interested in.</p>
<p>There are many lazy people with high post counts, and there are some people with low post counts who have done a lot of research.</p>
<p>Yes, all comments should not be taken seriously, for example the one above that implys 2100 is a great score for top schools.</p>
<p>Northstarmom, I agree with your sentiments, especially your Post #7. These are caveats that the wise would be well-served to heed. Your comments almost border cynicism, but I know you are just wanting to keep reality close at hand. ;)</p>
<p>Indeed, there are many who are seeking fast answers to complex questions or, conversely, those who are offering quick responses to layered queries. These terse, off-the-cuff posts can be a disservice, but only if they are accepted as entirely valid. Aggregated to form an evident consensus of opinion, even the short responses might have some value. Just take the time to put them into context -- factoring in source of the information, integrity of the poster, opinion vs. fact, generalization vs. specific, etc.</p>
<p>Your warnings should be aptly noted by all, and thank you for stating them clearly.</p>
<p>To be honest, I think even the most "lazy" applicant has SOME idea of their chances. If they were focused and motivated enough in HS to get great GPA's and good test scores, then they know outright yes or no if they are in the running for top schools. I just don't get the threads with 4.0, 2300+ applicants that are like "Do I have a shot?." </p>
<p>I think deep down (maybe this is just me, haha) that most people have some idea of their chances, they just want reassurance during a very stressful time.</p>
<p>
[quote]
I think deep down (maybe this is just me, haha) that most people have some idea of their chances, they just want reassurance during a very stressful time.
[/quote]
Badkarma89, I agree... "most" people have "some" idea of their chances, but I think you'd agree with me that some questions/responses presented are so far off the mark that you hope they don't reflect how truly "lazy" the individual might indeed be... or worse, that their remarks are not accepted without discriminating discernment for what is factual. The danger in wanting "reassurance" is that you hear what you want to hear and sometimes filter out what you do NOT want to hear. Perception works that way.</p>
<p>Many times it seems as though the people that say 2100 isn't a good score don't have good ECs. just an observation. I'm sorry, colleges are not going to choose you because you have 750s on your SATs over someone else who has 700s.</p>