Just a word of warning about “demonstrated interest.” We may have been an “outlier” family because of our “doughnut hole” status, but we did not see any correlation between how much interest the kid demonstrated in many selective liberal arts colleges (SLACs) and outcomes, unless being wait-listed counts as a good outcome! I suspect that a lot of the SLACs that factor “demonstrated interest” into admissions decisions have begun to up the “proof” required by favoring ED applicants or those RD applicants they persuade to switch to ED2. (Now THAT’s “demonstrated interest”!) My son was wait-listed at schools he demonstrated boatloads of interest in while being admitted to other, peer institutions, that he didn’t (for a variety of reasons) show as much love to.
I want to add that the best advice I learned here on CC was that a lot of students (especially boys) change tremendously their senior year of high school. I had a kid dead-set on attending a SLAC, who very late in the process discovered that was not the experience he wanted at all. Strong liberal arts community? Yes, but not at a place with <5,000 students. He is someone who very possibly could have ended up at a bad fit for him if he’d been accepted at his ED school, never mind the out-of-pocket costs! (The pressure to apply ED can be enormous when you have an unhooked student grasping for any “tip” he can come up with. Please tread VERY CAREFULLY with ED applications.)
I also want to reiterate what others have said about running the NPCs BEFORE your students starts submitting applications. While the better privates no doubt offer the best FA, they won’t necessarily be more affordable for YOUR family if you fall into the doughnut hole as well. So get the applications done for your state flagship (if it’s affordable) and some other automatic merit schools if it looks like the EFCs at your child’s favorite schools are keeping you up at night. However, IF you know you can afford the better schools, be prepared that your kid may have no interest in free tuition or free rides. Don’t change the terms on the kid at the last minute unless something drastic happens at the 11th hour (like a job loss or a serious health crisis). It’s just not fair to the kid.
Be open and honest with your student about what you can afford; I do not recommend applying to schools just to see if the student can “get in” if you KNOW you can’t afford it. Why waste everybody’s time? Knowing that you need a merit award to make it affordable is different, but make it clear to you kid that schools like that are long-shots at best.