The aid at some of those schools is likely similar, but you never know until you run the NPC.
If it turns out none would be affordable, merit aid is available at some pretty darn good schools… like Duke, Vanderbilt, Emory, Tulane… and surely others. Some state schools also are into merit aid, like Oklahoma and Alabama. Merit aid would help to reduce the shock of Out-of-State (OOS) prices.
Merit scholarships at some of those schools are more competitive than Ivy League admissions (Duke, etc). There are more opportunities as you move down say the USNWR rankings. Some of the schools do use merit as part of their NPCs, any questions about SAT scores or the like include that. A merit scholarship at a top 100 school is a very big achievement (and see below for the numbers). I am not always a big fan of the “free” vs the reduced price options, since there has to be a good match for students and not everyone is well Bama-bound. URochester, Case, Tulane give a lot of merit money.
Your state flagship may have selective honors programs and/or merit scholarships. You may be surprised how much of an honor it is to get into some limited enrollment programs right there, and they are often great schools at bargain prices.
Assuming you are discussing how to let your daughter graduate debt free or low debt by helping her out, here is one thing you can point out. Borrowing say 80K will result in monthly payments over 1000 a month for 10 years. Cheaper options, like your state flagship, will have lower debt and she will have more money when she is say 25 or even 30. Scholarships replace loans. So the 60-70K per year options are a future problem for her, in that she will be poor for a long long time.
Free tuition at your state flagship, wow, that would leave a lot of money for grad school or a downpayment on a house, you may be able to be generous (although I personally drew the line at offering cash to go to a cheaper school).
Her work to date will help her get scholarship money and/or a school that will be a good fit for her.
And, let her tour some schools and shop around for a school that matches her academic and non-academic interests, her personality, her dreams. Encourage her to really find a school she will engage with and be happy with.
Opening a letter from an elite suitor is a one-day happy event. Going to a school that is a good match at an affordable price is really 4 good years followed by a good life.
Depending on your particular bent and your daughters, you do have the option of applying to and turning down an elite school, but that is often difficult and demoralizing (why am I here when I could be there) or tempting (I will go there and worry about the 100k later).
The usual lists of big merit scholarships:
http://automaticfulltuition.yolasite.com/
http://competitivefulltuition.yolasite.com/
http://nmfscholarships.yolasite.com/
Will your daughter truly not be “excited” about the process if she’s not applying to elite, prestigious schools, or are you projecting? My daughter didn’t have any reach schools on her list (by her own choice, so it may be different), and I don’t think it affected her level of excitement, which was none at all. Some kids just don’t get excited about the college application process and consider it a grind. My daughter DID get excited about choosing from her acceptances and taking the next steps, as it all began to feel very real.
I think a lot of merit scholarships are just as competitive as getting into the tippy top schools, so your daughter will have plenty to work and compete for if that’s what she likes. She probably doesn’t realize it now, but she’s extremely fortunate that you’re laying out the financial realities now rather than next spring.
D1 had amazing choices. WUSTL and ND cost difference was 5,000. ND being cheaper it was the logical choice. Daughter will have 0 remaining in her college fund after 4 years and no luxuries paid for by parents. We are a middle class family that realized the hunt for merit aid was real. In the end daughter chose ND with enough scholarship money to make our share affordable at least for the first year. We are concerned about subsequent years, income , and D2 heading to college. Both daughters have been given a n opportunity to express what they thought they were looking for in the college setting. As time moved forward, they began to grasp college costs real money and started to discussing how they can and will contribute… Everyone gets an opinion. However the minute it is no longer affordable , the option is removed… Now to get my senior on board with the process.
I don’t see the point of your question. She will be more unhappy if she gets into a higher ranked school and can’t attend because it is unaffordable. This smacks of “tricking” her into hard work on her common app when you have no ability or intention of paying for her top choice.
I don’t think there’s any “trickery” involved as long as the parents are clear about the terms. It’s okay to shoot for a higher-ranked school if the eventual price-tag, with a merit award, is do-able. We went this route with our son. We eliminated schools where the NPC’s weren’t within a certain range unless they offered competitive merit money. Add in a financial safety (or preferably two!), and then you see where the chips fall. If the student doesn’t want to jump through the hoops for the competitive merit money, because it’s a lot of work when the odds are not on her side, so be it.
The goal, IMHO, is for your child to feel like she has choices come April 1. My kid got some nice offers from a few very selective schools that offered excellent financial aid, but in the end he chose one of his safeties because he felt it was a better value overall. Give a kid some options and they often surprise you.
The initial post implies that they are not true options, though.
Just one comment: They are not her suitors. The “elite” schools have no need to be suitors to anyone except low-income students and URMs.
@intparent You really read it that way? Interesting. You’re right, she would be very unhappy if we intended to trick her like that. Luckily, she knows what we are willing/able to pay.
@wiseacre I hope the subsequent years end up being affordable for you at ND. I, too, have a second coming along in a few more years. That’s one reason D1 has this issue 
@intparent Enough merit makes any school an option. Not sure what was unclear in my post, but I think I will follow the same process as @LucieTheLakie and others have suggested here. Thanks for the suggestions everybody!
Don’t forget to do a scheduled sit-down with your tax returns, checkbook, credit card statements, recurring bills, money market account statements, etc.
It’s nice to target “big merit aid”, but unless you know exactly what you can really afford to pay- every single month for four years- you’re setting your D off on a wild goose chase. I know people who told their kids to target merit aid- kid complied- and the gap between the bill and the family’s resources was still too big. A 60K year college can give your kid 20K- which is fantastic- but unless you’ve got a plan (past income in terms of savings, current income, i.e. what you can pull out of the family budget, and future income in terms of loans) to come up with 40K times four years… which is real money, not “little Susie got a big merit award”, but actual hard cash-- your D is still SOL.
So don’t figure “heck, we can afford 40K per year” unless you see, in writing, how you’re funding the 40K per year. If every year the money you have mentally earmarked for college savings has gone to fix the muffler or replace a broken washing machine or fix the roof when the gutters cave in- guess what- people with kids in college still need mufflers and washing machines and gutters. Don’t think your expenses are going to magically go down because your D is off in college (except of course- her direct expenses. And those are rarely enough of a savings to make a dent).
@blossom Totally get that…good advice. Everything has definitely been back-of-the-envelope so far…but we are more in the camp of ‘unwilling’, rather than ‘unable’ to pay. Or, we THINK we are. This is all a little tough when we don’t even have test scores yet, which could limit our options even more.
Would not matching personal criteria as close as possible be the only way to choose? And if the name of Elite / Ivy is at the top, sorry, not much you can do. I am very thankful that it was not the case with my kid, but it is unfortunate case with my grandD. So, I know exactly what you feel with the exception that I will not be paying for my grandD, I am done with paying tuitions (was not for UG though). Feel sorry for those young people who are setting themselves for the misery of high student loans.
One more comment from my newly graduated MD. D. mentioned that many in her Med. School class who attended at Ivy / Elite regretted it when facing huge Medical School loans. Realizing that they did not achieve any advantage by attending Ivy’s, they wished they were smarter in HS and got their UG education for free and negotiated with parent paying for Med. School instead. Keep in mind that most of these high caliber students are planning for Grad. School. I do not see any point in spending family resources for UG education in this type of scenario. But again, 16 y olds have very limited financial vision, I estimate that they have none of it at all.
It is fine to have no reach schools on the list. It is stupid to have financial reach school on the list.
Schools that are only affordable IF a large Merit scholarship is awarded should be put in a completely separate category called “lottery schools”, and should not be thought of as safety, match and reach schools. Until you have a better handle on tests scores, GPA and class rank, as well as how much you can actually afford to spend, it does little good to plan on the hope that your child can "grab the golden ring. "
My kid originally applied to three schools only. None were reaches…and actually probably were in the safety category for her. But the key…she loved these schools. Her applications were done by October 15…two EA and one rolling. She was accepted to all three by the start of December.
Then in January, she asked if she could apply to a reach school. No problem. She applied and was rejected.
She happily graduated from one of those first three schools.
Honestly, if your kid likes the college’s on their list, I see no reason to push for a reach school.
Treat it like she is being recruited like an athlete…except it is for her brains!! Same deal.
I don’t see an issue with a financial reach where you have a pretty good chance at the $.
I’ll add Rice and Richmond to the list of good schools that have big merit scholarships. Chicago at least use to give them as well.
But yes, gettting a big merit award from Chicago, Duke, JHU, or Rice may be as or more difficult than getting in to HYPSM.
Getting big merit money from WashU, Vandy, Emory, UVa, USC, ND, BC, or Wake may be as tough as getting in to an Ivy/equivalent (maybe more so).
Where are you in-state for and what majors is she considering?
Also, any AP scores yet? She might be able to save a little money that way.