<p>Curious as to about what likelihood of acceptance constitutes each category as we work on our college list. </p>
<p>Take a fictitious student with average or above average statistics for a given school, what do people think of as chance of acceptance to put a given school in given category (has to fit in the spreadsheet, you know) </p>
<p>Reach: <20% chance of acceptance</p>
<p>Match: About 50% chance of acceptance</p>
<p>Safety: >99% chance of acceptance</p>
<p>Numbers I pulled out of thin air. Other thoughts?</p>
<p>Because of ambiguity, if I’m chancing someone I usaually just say something like “you’re in” for someone who I think will be admitted, and “low chances” for someone I don’t think will get in. Also perhaps a “no shot” for someone who is being very unrealistic.</p>
<p>I would think Reach would be under 30%, match would be 30-90%, safety would be 90+%.</p>
<p>I’m not sure how to relate your percentages to Reach, Match, Safety. If these are general acceptance rates, then a student of above-average statistics should have about a 50% chance of acceptance at any of the schools, certainly schools that take 50% or more of applicants. In schools with historically low acceptance rates (e.g. HYP), being in the top 50% of accepted students is no guarantee of acceptance and any school like that will always be a “reach” in the sense that no statistics will guarantee an acceptance. When you get to schools that accept about 20-25% of the applicants and you are within the top 50% of the previous year applicants, I think you can consider those schools to be matches. Not guaranteed, but a strong likelihood of acceptance. By the time you get to 60% acceptance rates, I think you are close to a safety.</p>
<p>Your division is fine, the hard part is figuring out what your chances are given that student’s scores, GPA’s (weighted and unweighted), challenging load (ie number of APs or advanced IB courses) and ECs all weigh into those chances. I don’t worry too much about whether this school is a safety or a match or a reach. We just have a list with schools that look more and less likely to get into, with the most important thing being that there are one or two that look like sure bets.</p>
<p>The other relavant thing is that, thanks to rolling admissions and EA, a match or a reach can become a safety. If you have already been accepted, that’s the best kind of safety!</p>
<p>Well, if you read about my spreadsheet on another thread, you might not say I was keeping things simple, but part of the point there was that when I resort my list the position of all the schools jiggle around a bit. But the safest safeties stay safe and the reachiest reaches stay reaches.</p>
<p>Mathmom that’s what we did too. One of my D’s list was composed entirely of what we thought were good matches/safties…no real reaches in our minds but even so, in the crazy admissions season we just had, two matches denied her. Still she finished with 7 of 9 acceptances and is attending her first choice which really was a safety all along.</p>
<p>I like the idea of looking at the list as safties and “everything else” since match schools can become reachier in tough/quixotic admissions seasons like we just went through and I think that in the mind of a kid it is easy for Match=safety. This is especially true for kids who, like mine, don’t have access to Naviance data. Kids who have Naviance or something similar, have a clearer idea of the line of demarcation between a match and a reach.</p>
<p>I used to try to estimate (guess) the actual probability of acceptance (0-100%), but wound up labling schools by my perceived likihood in four categories:</p>
<p>High Prob (I’m almost certain he’ll get in unless they lose his application)
Good Chance (I’m pretty sure he’ll get in.)
Fair Chance (Wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t get in, but not out of the question.)
Poor Chance (Basically a Lotto ticket…)</p>
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<p>Exactly–and we can be just plain wrong on our estimate. If our kid doesn’t get into a “good chance” school, does that mean we were wrong in our estimate or did the odds just play themselves out? I’m thinking it often means we guessed wrong or the odds changed.</p>
<p>Furthermore, it is really important to remember that these probabilities may not be independent/uncorrelated between schools, particularly when you include the estimation error. If there is a bad teacher rec, if you misjudge what kind of kids a school accepts, if you overweight the impact of your kid’s tough schedule, or if you are just naive in thinking your kid is more competitive than he really is, your kid could have a lot fewer choices come April than you thought he would.</p>
<p>I like the percentage chance of getting in approach you used. Some people think in terms of the fit, the elite schools may be a good fit but they are never a sure thing for any student. Match schools are where you are a good academic fit but you never know. Safety schools should take you, but nothing is ever 100%.</p>
<p>You need to look at the schools stats. A solid safety would have all your scores in the top 25%, a solid match would have your scores in the top mid 50%, and a reach would be everything else. We even used reach as scores in the bottom mid 50%. And that’s acroos the board for all the other factors that go into admittance. You need the solid GPA that most students get most students admitted and you need a solid app and essay. Collegeboard site for “how I stack up” works pretty well, but like everything it isn’t the be all and end all.</p>
<p>I second Chelsea0011’s approach. We use the admissions stats first, if your GPA & SAT/ACTs are 75th%tile or higher = Safety, 50th - 75th %tile = Match, 25th - 50th% = Reach, below 25th% tile = “don’t bother and get back in your room and study some more”. </p>
<p>From there I look at the admit rates and compare that to his statistical position. So 75th%-tile academic stats plus a >50% admit rate equals safety, while 50th% tile academics and a 20% admit rate = reach, but I’d consider a 75th%-tile academics with a 20% admit rate a match. There are obviously no guarantees, but this approach worked out very well with S1 and it’s what we using on S2’s list.</p>
<p>I think it’s important to start from the academic side first. If your profile is on the low side (<35%-tile), for a school, your chances are very slim regardless of the admit rate.</p>
<p>We are also using a modified version of Chelsea’s approach.</p>
<p>The modificiation is that we are sorting by reaches, fits and “financial safety”. </p>
<p>A “financial safety” is one where the kid is in the top 25% of applicants by academics, the school’s profile seems to favor kid’s interests, and where a signficant proportion of the incoming students received a significant amount of financial aid.</p>
<p>We gleaned that latter info from the USNWR big book, which has “% of students receiving merit aid” and “average merit award”.</p>
<p>For example, 25% of Franklin Marshall students received a financial award averaging $13k and at Muhlenberg 30% got an average of $11k.</p>
<p>Slightly off-topic (sorry OP):
Would you change your way of rating schools as Safety, Match, Reach for those no longer requiring standardized tests? That is, can you use scores anymore for those schools? GPA?</p>
<p>If your school has the Naviance program, it is a huge help to see how kids from your HS with your stats have done–colleges do not treat all HS’s equally.
And remember average stats for admitted may be much higher than for enrolled (some schools are used as safeties); stats for URMs, atheltes and legacies are often deceivingly low; and many schools are much easier to get in ED than regular admission. Also, in a recession, not asking for aid may help.</p>
<p>Kei - I would consider your “financial safety” to actually be a financial match, because a historically generous trend does not guarantee that YOU will get a similarly generous package. Therefore, it’s a good chance but not safe. Financial safety is a public where you can pay the full tab or a school that offers automatic merit aid that allows you to pay the full remaining tab.</p>