@menloparkmom
Glad you asked - thanks for that. I assumed, in addition to essay and recommendation letters, there was an evaluation of more ECs and or further dissection/raising bar of test scores to whittle to a target number. (Seems clear it was a bad assumption). Knowing that these peers would have certainly received recommendations and written proficient essays, and knowing their scores are close enough to my son’s to be indistinguishable (right now), I concluded it was not an encouraging outlook. Since the timing is such that we have not gone through this yet, it seems some of my assumptions were wrong.
For example, you have stated that the student must “NOT have C’s or D’s on their transcript”. The National Merit Finalist Language I read on their web site is not so clear or forgiving. " Have a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12 and in any college course work taken. Your school must provide a complete record of high school courses you have taken, grades earned, and course work you will take in grade 12."