We have an EFC of $15-20k, and there’s no way we can meet it. S will be applying to all safeties, mostly autostats / NMF schools. He has one financial reach school (Tulane) that might be possible if he’s awarded certain competitive scholarships.
@newyorkmom2girl On the recommendation of our GC, we banished the word safety in our household and substituted “likely” and I think it does add excitement, instead of a feeling of resignation. Also likelies become matches and matches become reaches if you’re chasing merit.
We don’t qualify for need nor can we afford full pay and it was initially a bit of a letdown when we realized that there were many schools we could not consider for our high achieving child (who would have slim chances and added stress competing with all of the other high achieving students across the country, had she applied to top 20 schools).
Remind yourself and your child that there are many students who are probably very similar, who have to seek out merit in order to have greater choice, and that your child will find like-minded, capable peers wherever she ends up. By the time my daughter concluded her college search, she had identified a number of schools where she’d fit well, be intellectually challenged, and would encounter new experiences. Now in the middle of the acceptance season, we still have no idea where she’ll end up but she already has a number of affordable options before her and we are all excited about the final ouctome.
We presented our D with a budget range and she identified schools that fell within those figures. Some did not require merit in order to attend, but most do. She applied to one reach where merit possibilities are slim, but exist.
It sounds like you are in the Midwest - there are many merit options there as well as in the upper south and the south. There are also some good options in the Pacific Northwest. Many of the western states have public universities that offer in-state tuition for academically strong OOS students and can be an excellent value.
As for prestige and competition within her school, it’s a good time to cultivate the art of vagueness - “D is still thinking about where would be the best fit.” “D hasn’t decided yet, she’s waiting until all of her acceptances are before her.” Then ask, “what about your child?” Settle in, you’ll probably be there for awhile! 
Thank you mamaedefamilia - very well said and I love the idea of “likelies.” Definitely going to use that one!
We’re in NY but some OOS state schools are still viable options.
@Attending , why have you promoted this book on 5 different threads in the last hour?
Great thread with a lot of good advice! We are lucky in our school system there isn’t the pressure on kids (and parents) for the perceived prestige schools. In a few surrounding areas there is, and parents easily get sucked into private tutors, chasing EC’s, etc only to find many are applying to highly competitive schools without regard for how to pay or they will “figure it out” with loans or retirement money. I like @mamaedefamilia 's response when it comes time to discussing with others.
A concern some families may have with only safeties is fit. For example if you have a high stats child, will they find similar students. This can be accomplished at large public schools either due to the sheer number or through honor’s classes/college/living environments. At LAC’s it could be more difficult. One solution can be to extrapolate data and calculate the number of students in the freshman class which had a GPA within your child’s range. The same can be done for ACT/SAT scores and top 10%, etc. The numbers may not be exact, but when comparing a large number of safeties it can be another factor.
<<<To answer some earlier questions, we won’t qualify for financial aid and yet full price isn’t realistic either.
We’re considering safeties the schools where she’s above the 75th percentile and where we’d be comfortable paying for her to go. One example is Indiana/Bloomington. She’s also interested in Vanderbilt, which would be a reach for her and there’s very little chance of merit - yet there is still a small chance.>>>
What is your targeted net price?
Are you instate for Indiana? If not, it can be pricey because they’ve reduced their merit so much. Very disappointing in recent years, even for high stats.
There are schools that give assured merit for stats. Apply to a few of those that give huge merit and those can be safeties.
@Midwestmomofboys
You mention that Grinnell came off your son’s list because of no merit awards. But Grinnell is generous with merit funded by their large endowment and has some fairly large awards.
@mom2collegekids we’re Ok with Indiana’s OOS without any merit, which would be around $46k. We’d like to stay in that range; lower even better 
!
My D applied to 1 financial safety and the rest financial reaches (schools where she would definitely be admitted and had a decent chance at the top scholarship). We’re happy with her options. There is no need to apply to academic reaches. And it’s a waste to apply to schools that you know with certainty will be unaffordable (high EFC you can’t or don’t want to pay) and doesn’t offer merit.
One other thought, we started this conversation about price with my daughter during her sophomore year even though she wasn’t thinking about colleges yet. We wanted her to hear the message early on that fit and cost were more important than the name of the school. So now we tell her how amazing it would be if she were to get merit at (X) safety school, rather than how great it would be to get into the more selective non-merit school.
What I find frustrating is that even though my daughter is self-directed and doesn’t need any help searching for colleges, finding specific data on merit scholarships (how many kids receive them, what typical stats are, etc.) requires a lot of time that she just doesn’t have, so this is where I come in. I’d rather not be involved but trying to find details about merit scholarships at certain schools isn’t always so easy.
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My D applied to 1 financial safety and the rest financial reaches (schools where she would definitely be admitted and had a decent chance at the top scholarship
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While this may and hopefully will work out wonderfully for your DD, a better strategy is to apply to at least 3 financial safeties where large merit is assured, if cost is a big concern…and this is why:
- The one financial safety that is liked by the student in the fall, may not be liked as much in the spring.
- Sometimes a school that is believed to be a financial safety turns out not to be. The family may have overlooked some detail....app deadline for merit, UW GPA needed for merit, superscore not used, schools awards are really competitive and not assured for stats, the school is discontinuing the desired major, or some other reason why a desired school is no longer a good choice or an affordable choice.
- If the one financial safety is the only affordable choice, the child may feel railroaded into going to the only affordable school. I still remember my son's high school classmate being very upset at graduation because she was being forced to attend her only affordable school....she called it the "booby prize." Having 3 desirable financial safeties means that no matter what happens with the rest of apps, the student will still get to make a choice, and Americans like having choices! Better for morale! :)
@mom2collegekids yes I totally agree. I’m hoping she’ll end up with 3 financial safeties for those exact reasons. Having choices is important.
@newyorkmom2girl, you can glean some info on merit from the Common Data Set (Google for each school). There is info in the financial section on non-need based scholarships. They say how many students get them. Calculate what % of the student body get them. Say it is 10%. Then look at test scores and see if you think your kid falls in the top 10% for the school. If so, you could consider their chances to be decent to get at least the average dollar amount shown in the CDS. It is a crude method, but tells you something.
Then carefully read the school website in scholarships. And if there sre accepted student threads from the past couple of years out here on CC, read them and see what you can glean about the stats of those who got the awards.
Yes, there is much less transparency with respect to merit scholarships (other than automatic-for-stats-or-NM-status ones) than for admission. Competitive merit scholarships should generally be treated as reaches.
What does DD want to study? Have you made some campus visits to determine some of the other factors on what she is looking for with her UG education?
She thinks she wants to go to med school but we realize that could change at any moment. But assuming she does eventually go to med school, we’re looking to minimize UG expenses.
She’s visited many schools and has been happy with almost all of them unless they’re in a rural area.
It is fine to apply to a reach school. I would limit the amount of reaches to say one academic reach and one financial reach. Tell your child that making decisions is a part of life and that you should be able to narrow your choice down by making these tough decisions. Stress to the child that these are “reaches” and to not get hopes up. The odds are it will not work out so make sure they are ready for that.
I really need to learn to ask questions to clarify how things are being defined before responding. A $47,000/yr budget is not how I would define financial safeties. I think that that budget incorporates the vast majority of schools. (OOS cost of attendance at Carolina is “only” $51,000. )
@Mom2aphysicsgeek your first response was very helpful and informative, regardless of how you were viewing financial safeties. Ideally, we would like to pay much less but I’m still trying to figure out which scholarships are actually likely, and so we’re mentally preparing ourselves for a higher cost. UNC, as you mentioned, may be in our ball park financially but it’s still a tough admission for OOS students. And even if she got in, I’d still like to pay less for UNC
Sounds like you are gathering good information, and perhaps making enough visits to trim your application list next fall. Be sure to visit where merit is strong, or anticipated strong with low UG final costs, and cost/benefit analysis - and what is liked at various places. Always good to see those possibilities.