Reports indicate that both the University of Texas At Austin and the University of Oklahoma are planning to move to the SEC athletic conference,although Texas A&M claims to have veto power via a "gentleman’s agreement"with the SEC.
If the move is made, Oklahoma & UT-Austin will each be required to pay a $76 million exit fee to their current conference.
What do folks think about this likely move ?
Should a move to the Big10 be considered as Texas A&M is already in the SEC ?
It would be interesting to read an analysis of the impact upon football recruiting for both the University of Texas at Austin and for Texas A&M if the move to the SEC is made.
Did Texas A&M football recruiting improve when it moved to the SEC ?
What effect did A&M’s move to the SEC have on UT-Austin’s football recruiting ?
And Kansas and Iowa State supposedly want to join the Big 10.
It would take a sustained and large increase in financial opportunities at the new conference to justify (have a positive ROI) paying the huge conference exit fees that some of these schools would have to pay. Seems irresponsible to make this move and pay those fees if they wouldn’t be recouped, and quickly…as these schools don’t offer adequate financial aid to many students.
OTOH, I think Texas and Oklahoma can leave after 2024/25 and not pay exit fees because that’s when the current TV contract ends. SEC has a new commissioner that is well respected and has already made some positive changes, so it’s even more desirable now as a conference.
Will be interesting to see what happens and the timing.
The exit fee is a drop in the bucket for UT since they have the largest endowment. I bet they already have boosters lined up to pay.
I think if UT and OU leave the conference will dissolve.
There is a big difference between what A&M thought and the reality of college football. When any conference has a chance to grab 2 of the top 8 college football program, they will always do it. The SEC doesn’t care about A&M’s feelings.
The Grant of Rights, which accounts for the large exit fee, is dissolved if 4 member institutions want to leave. The other Big 12 schools are all scrambling to get invites from the other major conferences. If 2 more get such invites, Texas and OU will pay nothing.
Why is this move happening now? Because of the NIL (name/image/likeness) ruling allowing college athletes to make money. In the past, Texas wanted no part of the SEC and what Texas believes to be their extreme level of cheating. That is why Texas never wanted to join until now, and was not pleased when A&M joined. Texas didn’t want the SEC bagmen infiltrating Texas on a large scale. Now, NIL allows Texas to get players paid above and beyond what SEC teams could illegally pay players. Cheating is no longer a relevant concern, so joining the SEC now makes sense.
I think if this happens, the big 12 teams are in trouble. There is little left that a big conference would want. UT and OU flirted with the PAC 10 years ago.
Basketball schools like KU and Baylor are not big enough draws in football, where it matters. Iowa St is too regional and OK State is second fiddle. , not high profile enough to add value to a major conference. Maybe WVU could fit in the big 10 or ACC. I’d be worried if I was anyone else.
Maybe they try to grab schools like Memphis and Cincy and keep going.
While football revenue for the biggest names exceeds basketball revenues for the biggest names, you are underestimating basketball revenue. According to USA today, pre-covid Kansas generated $122M total in NCAA revenue, most of it from basketball. Kentucky made $150M.
The number one school overall was of course Texas, with total revenue of $224M.
True but remember the big east with Syracuse. St John’s. Nova. BC. GTOWN
Football ruled and BC, Syracuse and Pitt followed the $.
When the. OU to PAC 10 discussions happened a few years ago there was talk KU would end up in the Mountaim West. I can see them in the Big 10 but not Iowa State.
It will be interesting. I would assume they try to keep the conference together by adding others. OU and UT have such a great deal that it’s amazing they’d do this AGAIN …goes to show you, loyalty is a forgotten word.
I love college basketball, but it has very little to do with college sports realignment.
WVU would be an unlikely match for the Big10 due to academics.
The addition of Nebraska to the Big10 caused a lot of debate regarding scholarship.
The best matches for the Big10 are Notre Dame and Cornell and Texas.
Cornell is Ivy - and is not in a TV market - so there’s no hope there. The fact that it’s an Ivy alone - and has zero athletic infrastructure for that makes that not possible.
Notre Dame is already “tied” to the ACC - so that won’t happen. Anyone would love them but they love football independence and they have that with the ACC.
UT work work for any conference - hence everyone wants them - but not geographically (for the Big 10).
I agree about WVU and they’re not in a tv market but I suppose close enough to Pittsburgh. WVU is an R1 status. I imagine they’d be more likely for the ACC as they have established relationships with Pitt and Syracuse - but the ACC is loaded academically too - but Clemson and FSU weren’t always highly thought of schools and Louisville still isn’t.
Conferences will do anything for money. Hence the Pac 10 tried to get Tx Tech and the Big 10 took Nebraska - and it’s not like Nebraska isn’t a great school.
It’s always unknown - the big 10 took Rutgers (great school, bad sports) - while they’re in the NY TV market, Syracuse would have been a much smarter choice - with more NYC interest even though it’s 4 hours away. PItt would have made sense too.
None of us know of course - but it’s fun to think about.
If I had to guess, the Big 12 would live on - and try to bring in some AAC schools such as Houston and SMU. There’s already talk of Colorado State but I don’t see them as viable. Perhaps they’d reach out geographically and hit Florida (UCF) - will be fun to debate for sure.
Thereby making it the super-enormous Big 16 for football.
The Big 10 has its own TV market. What they’d need to go is sell it to the cable companies in any new market. It splits TV revenue equally, I think. The conference was happy to pick up Maryland and Rutgers because they are in big TV markets. Nebraska? Not so much but Nebraska has a huge traveling fan base that brings lots of money to the home teams when they are on the road. Kansas? Not so much and Iowa State they already have with Iowa.
Texas is a hard school to pick up for a conference because it has its own tv network. Notre Dame likes being independent and gets bazillions from NBC contracts.
I don’t think KU or KSU would join Mountain West. Getting to Hawaii or Boise (not a state) State from the middle of Kansas isn’t easy.
The Longhorn Network is an ESPN network. If/when Texas joins the SEC, the LHN will dissolve, or it will become a 2nd SEC network channel (perhaps they will have an SEC East and SEC West Channel).
But does Texas share TV revenues? Why will the LHN dissolve? It’s like printing money for Texas.
The TV money made from the new Super-conference that is created by Texas & Oklahoma going to the SEC will more than make-up for the LHN money.
Iowa State and Kansas are the best bets for the Big 10. The Big 10 cares about academics and Iowa State and Kansas are the only AAU schools left in the Big 12. Iowa State travels very well, has strong academics, and has strong sports. Kansas is…well, Kansas. It’s a guaranteed “W” in football, and provided they are not on probation, a powerhouse in basketball.
Baylor and TCU may be in serious trouble. They are not going to the Big 10. The PAC 12 does not play nice with religious schools (see, BYU). Say hello to the American! SMU will be the first to welcome you home.
Texas Tech and Oklahoma State make some sense in the PAC 12. The operative word in that sense is “some”. Nothing brings the Pacific to mind like Stillwater, Oklahoma. Still, if it is a scramble for the remaining pieces, those are the best.
That leaves Kansas State. Either to the American or Mountain West. But, if the American absorbs the two Texas schools, why would it take this one (because it already has Wichita State?).
Suffice to say the Big 12 is dead. Its TV deal allows the broadcaster to redetermine rates if schools leave the conference (uh oh). With Texas and Oklahoma gone, the majority of the value of the Big 12 just left the building. The days of $35M per team are gone.
Notre Dame would be a great fit for the Big10.
A quick google search showed that Big 10 football payouts were almost $56 million per team while Notre Dame earned $54 million in football revenue. (Not sure if these figures were for the same year as one may be for 2020 & the other for 2019.)
Maybe the Big 10 can ask the Pope for assistance in recruiting Notre Dame to the Big10. After all, if God didn’t want Notre Dame in the Big 10, then He wouldn’t have placed the university in the middle of Big10 country. Common sense, divine intervention,and a big check should do the trick.
Texas, Oklahoma, Pitt, and Notre Dame to the Big 10. Is that too much to ask ?
Seems reasonable to me.
P.S. Maybe Texas A&M to the Big 10 along with Notre Dame ?
Exploring Big Ten’s best expansion plans for building a superconference
Interesting observation for conspiracy theorists: The new ACC Commisioner came from the Big 10 (was Northwestern’s athletic director).
P.S. Plus, doesn’t the University of Washington seem to be more Big 10 than Pac 10 ?
Combining the 9 AAU Pac 10 schools with the existing Big 10 to form a super-conference ?
(Might generate some business for the legions of M&A attorneys & accountants.)
Since the ACC holds the football rights to Notre Dame through the 2035-2036 season, maybe the best target for any Big 10 expansion should involve discussions with the ACC.
An enticement for Notre Dame might be to rename the Big 10 conference to “Notre Dame and the Big 10 including special member The Ohio State University”.
So many dramatic changes in college football in a short period of time between realignments and player compensation issues. It will be interesting to watch the change in the NCAA’s role regarding college athletics since “amateurism” is no longer an issue. Maybe the NCAA’s role will be limited to that of a policing force for drug testing and recruitment bribery.
Under the new compensation rules, can a university compensate a player for the use of that player’s image ? Will recruiting of high profile can’t miss players such as John Elway involve stadium naming rights ?
Increasingly,college football is all about the money. Maybe schools will start selling naming rights to the 50 yard line. Maybe star players will legally change their names to include their top sponsor .