Will this one year affect my future?

I am an incoming junior and I had a question on my chances for a few colleges. School details: 2000+. known for being one of the most competitive schools in our entire county, public, and it’s in Texas.

I plan to major in pre-med or any science major because I want to later specialize in neurosurgery (I have had my heart set on this since 4th grade and don’t plan to change)

My freshman year classes and final grades:
-AP Human Geography 89
-Honors Algebra I 86
-Honors English I 90
-Honors Biology 91
-Honors Spanish II 92
-Broadcast 98
-Band (double blocked) 98

My freshman year went pretty well. I was number 65 with (I’m not sure but I think) a 3.79 or 3.81 out of a 4.0 GPA.

However, my sophomore year went downhill (I became clinically depressed and actually went to a mental hospital for a week). These are my classes:

-AP World History 81
-AP Biology 82
-AP Spanish IV (I took Spanish III over the summer to be ahead… final average was an 84) 85
-Honors English II 83
-Honors Geometry (second semester only… I took first semester online but I failed so I have to do it this summer)
-Honors Algebra II 84
-Honors Chemistry 83
-Band 95

I don’t have my final grades yet or GPA/rank because the school year hasn’t ended, so these are my first semester.

1 semester GPA: 4.7 (weighted)
1 semester Rank: 86

I’m also semi-fluent in Spanish, fluent in English (of course), and fluent in Persian.
I play 7 instruments fluently (Clarinet, Guitar, Piano, Violin, Flute, Ukulele, Saxophone). I am continuing to learn more
I have participated in many school organizations like Persian Culture Club (I was officer), Student Council, and Math Club. I plan to do a lot of volunteer work and join more school organizations (I am changing schools so I need to join more)

This also probably doesn’t have an effect on anything, but these are the classes I am taking as a junior:
-AP English Language
-AP Spanish V
-AP U.S. History
-AP Physics I
-AP Chemistry
-Medical Microbiology
-Honors Pre Calculus
-Band

Finally, these are my dream and target colleges. I don’t know what I want to choose for safety, so if anyone has any recommendations, feel free to leave them below (Has to be in California or New York):
-Stanford University
-University of Southern California
-University of California, Berkeley
-University of California, Los Angeles
-Columbia University
-Pepperdine University
-Yale University

As a Texas resident, you will receive no financial aid from any California public school UC’s and Cal States so unless your parents can pay full fees at $60K+/ year for the UC’s, there will be no safeties in California. You might target some private California universities that would give merit aid but for safeties you need to know how much your parents can pay towards your college education. In-state options usually make for good safeties.

Calculate your UC GPA:https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

Only AP/IB or DE courses count for the extra honors points.

UC’s and Stanford (senior mid-year transcripts) use 10-11th grades in their GPA calculation so based on your Sophomore grades, UCLA/UCB and especially Stanford look out of Reach.
Forget about Dream schools and start looking at realistic safety/ match schools.
Test scores and GPA are extremely important for merit aid.

Hello, as a rising junior, this is the perfect time for you to study hard for standardized tests. I think your GPA will definitely hurt your chances for getting into these schools, but it is too early to tell. UCs primarily look at a capped GPA so focus on improving your grades as much as you can next year. Your ECs are pretty generic and typical of an average high school student, so try getting involved in a few more activities that correspond to your area of interest. I would suggest that you join clubs like HOSA that pertain to medicine. Additionally, you should try to find a hospital to volunteer at. Though MANY applicants volunteer at hospitals, since you are interested in following a pre-med track, you should try to obtain this opportunity as soon as possible. You may, depending on if you are interested in this, want to nab some research opportunities with college faculty as well. Remember, colleges would much rather take in a student with a particular area of focus rather than a student that puts a little time into a bunch of different, unrelated activities. ALSO, note that pre-med itself is NOT a major, but rather a track that a student with ANY major can follow. Keep this in mind.

I will give you a brief sample of my own profile. I am a rising senior and will be starting college apps this summer. I am also interested in pre-med and plan to major in neuroscience or biology. As of now, I have worked on three different projects at a community laboratory, one of which won an award at a regional science fair and another that won an international competition. Additionally, I am a lab intern at two biology labs at the University of Texas at Austin. I also volunteer at a hospital on weekends, and last year was a student coordinator for an organization that serves mentally disabled people. Finally, I am working on a scientific publication that will be published in a scientific journal this summer.

What you want to aim for is a more streamlined profile such as the one I described above. Yes, I have participated in other activities unrelated to medicine, but the key things I am highlighting on my application are related to medicine.

As of now, with your credentials, most of the schools you have listed are reaches or are out of reach. Pepperdine may be a low reach or high match depending on your grades and test scores next year. Good luck!

Chance me back here: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1995754-chance-me-low-gpa-rank-cornell-rice-wash-u-ucla-etc.html#latest